For my view: No — Tuesday’s Senate setback is not the whole story.
The failed CLARITY Act vote is still the main short-term problem because it creates regulatory uncertainty for Circle. The Senate vote was 49–50, below the 60 votes needed.
But CRCL has other important factors:
Arc launched successfully with 100+ institutional/ecosystem builders.
Higher interest rates can support Circle’s reserve income.
USDC continues to grow, with $73.3B in circulation at Q2-end.
However, the market still needs to see real revenue and profit from Arc.
Bottom line: CRCL is facing a mix of regulatory risk + valuation risk + execution risk. Arc is promising, but it needs to prove it can become a profitable business.
Semis Retreat Broadly as Broader Market Holds; Can CPI Provide Direction?
U.S. equities diverged Monday: S&P 500 -0.06% to 7,807.24, QQQ -0.70% to $746.04. Semiconductors bore the brunt — SOXL -8.13%, SOXS +8.14% — after CXMT's president announced a 4F² DRAM architecture breakthrough at a weekend conference, stoking fears of long-term pricing pressure from Chinese DRAM. September CPI drops tomorrow at 8:30 PM Beijing time; Fed's Warsh speaks at the IMF meeting Friday, with markets pricing 69% odds of no October hike. Broader market and semis moving in opposite directions — does the divergence hold past the CPI print?
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