For My choice: U.S. stocks
If rates stay higher for longer, U.S. stocks—especially high-growth and high- valuation tech stocks—could feel the most pressure.
Why?
Higher rates make borrowing more expensive.
Future company profits become worth less today.
Expensive growth stocks are more sensitive to higher yields.
The stronger dollar can also pressure multinational companies.
Treasury bonds would also be affected, but yields rising can partly offset the impact for new bond buyers. Gold may also face pressure from higher real yields, although geopolitical risks can support it.
Bottom line:
Higher rates → higher Treasury yields → more pressure on expensive stocks.
For me, the key number to watch is the 10-year Treasury yield, not just the Fed rate.
Indexes Flat, But Where Were the Gains?
Friday was quarterly triple witching - index futures, index options and single-stock options expiring at once. The index barely moved: QQQ +0.63% to $721.45, SPY roughly flat at $761.69. Underneath, it split. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose nearly 3% while the megacaps went the other way: Meta -2.43% to $665.75 on no company news, Oracle -1.98% to $147.61, handing back a third of Thursday's 5.19%, Apple -0.26% to $336.13. On an expiry day the index print is part mechanics, not all opinion. The split underneath is what traded. Does a flat tape on triple witching tell you anything?
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