Gu Fu Po
09-18

Federal Reserve rate hikes cool inflation by tightening financial conditions, which naturally creates headwinds for stocks rather than relief.

* Lower Valuations: Stock prices represent the discounted value of future earnings. Higher interest rates raise the discount rate, shrinking the present value of future corporate profits—hitting growth stocks hardest.

* Higher Capital Costs: Squeezed margins, higher debt servicing costs, and reduced consumer spending slow revenue growth across industries.

* Yield Competition: High yields on risk-free Treasuries and money market accounts lure capital away from equities.

* Recession Risk: Hikes signal that the Fed is actively dampening economic activity, fueling fears of a corporate earnings slump.

True stock market relief typically arrives only when the Fed pauses or cuts rates, signaling an easing of monetary policy.

Nasdaq Closes at Record, 10-Year Tops 5.32% — What's Holding It Up?
The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.05% Monday to a record close of 27,477.31; the S&P 500 gained 0.66% to 7,773.95, within 0.6% of its own record; QQQ added 0.88% to $756.20. The 10-year yield climbed to 5.321%, the highest since 2002. The Dow lagged, +0.18% at 51,267.90. Bulls say the record rests on AI earnings, not multiple expansion, so it can take higher rates; bears say it sits on a few mega-cap names with no second leg. A Nasdaq record and a yield record on the same day — how long can both hold?
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Comments

  • blinkix
    09-18
    blinkix
    Tech and consumer names usually feel it first. Gross margins look fine until refinancing and softer demand hit together, then earnings revisions start cascading lol
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