I see it mainly as locking in -To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

I see it mainly as locking in profit, even if it sacrifices some upside. Memory has always been highly cyclical, so securing customers for next year's capacity reduces the risk of being caught with excess supply when the cycle eventually turns. With demand currently so strong, selling too much capacity early could leave money on the table if prices keep rising, but I'd rather see manufacturers protect margins and cash flow than maximise every dollar at the top of the cycle.

Two-Thirds of Next Year's Capacity Already Sold — Who's Still Shorting Memory?

Memory led Tuesday's rally as the Nasdaq closed at a record: SanDisk +6.82% to $1,887.04, Micron +5.00% to $1,096.16, SK Hynix +3.45% to $195.37. Rosenblatt started SanDisk at Buy, target $2,400, and about two-thirds of its next-year capacity is already contracted; Bernstein puts Samsung's Q3 HBM revenue up 72% QoQ. Bears had their own headlines: Michael Burry added to his Micron short on Acer's supply warning, and Micron's $25B Taiwan fab faces a possible strike — the stock rose anyway. Selling next year's capacity now: locking in profit, or borrowing from the upside?

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AthenaVeblen
09-23
AthenaVeblen
From a supply-demand angle, locking volume early also saves them from ugly price wars later when the cycle cools. That downside protection matters more than squeezing the last dollar now

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