Scott McNealy from Sun had a g-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

Scott McNealy from Sun had a good reality check on this. At 10x revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, the company would have to pay out 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. What were people thinking? That was him back in 2002.

In 1999, paying 10x sales for hardware was considered normal right before the Dot-Com crash. Now look at the semiconductor market.

The AI hype tier sits above 15x to 25x price-to-sales. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is around 18x price-to-sales, and $Broadcom(AVGO)$ is around 19x. To justify an 18x P/S ratio today, an investor needs 18 years of 100% revenue payouts, assuming zero COGS, zero R&D, zero taxes, and zero employee pay. The market is pricing in continuous hyper-growth and massive software-like profit margins.

On the reasonable value side, $Qualcomm(QCOM)$ trades around 4.3x to 4.9x price-to-sales. At roughly 4.5x sales, Qualcomm doesn't require impossible dot-com math to deliver value. It trades at a standard industrial hardware multiple while giving investors exposure to edge AI, automotive tech, and high-margin patent licensing through QTL.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":612392086426080,"tweetId":"612392086426080","gmtCreate":1790527247000,"gmtModify":1790556203202,"author":{"id":10000000000010990,"idStr":"10000000000010990","authorId":10000000000010990,"authorIdStr":"10000000000010990","name":"Merle Ted","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0681550b13e51a8ffa4c08327616955","vip":8,"userType":8,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":56,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9cbef1b6ea2e4f78b14288011cbfe39b","width":"612","height":"424"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9cbef1b6ea2e4f78b14288011cbfe39b","width":"612","height":"424"}],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Scott McNealy from Sun had a good reality check on this. At 10x revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, the company would have to pay out 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. What were people thinking? That was him back in 2002.</p>\n<p>In 1999, paying 10x sales for hardware was considered normal right before the Dot-Com crash. Now look at the semiconductor market.</p>\n<p>The AI hype tier sits above 15x to 25x price-to-sales. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> is around 18x price-to-sales, and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AVGO\">$Broadcom(AVGO)$&nbsp;</a> is around 19x. To justify an 18x P/S ratio today, an investor needs 18 years of 100% revenue payouts, assuming zero COGS, zero R&amp;D, zero taxes, and zero employee pay. The market is pricing in continuous hyper-growth and massive software-like profit margins.</p>\n<p>On the reasonable value side, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QCOM\">$Qualcomm(QCOM)$&nbsp;</a> trades around 4.3x to 4.9x price-to-sales. At roughly 4.5x sales, Qualcomm doesn't require impossible dot-com math to deliver value. It trades at a standard industrial hardware multiple while giving investors exposure to edge AI, automotive tech, and high-margin patent licensing through QTL.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9cbef1b6ea2e4f78b14288011cbfe39b\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"424\"></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Scott McNealy from Sun had a good reality check on this. At 10x revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, the company would have to pay out 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. What were people thinking? That was him back in 2002.</p>\n<p>In 1999, paying 10x sales for hardware was considered normal right before the Dot-Com crash. Now look at the semiconductor market.</p>\n<p>The AI hype tier sits above 15x to 25x price-to-sales. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> is around 18x price-to-sales, and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AVGO\">$Broadcom(AVGO)$&nbsp;</a> is around 19x. To justify an 18x P/S ratio today, an investor needs 18 years of 100% revenue payouts, assuming zero COGS, zero R&amp;D, zero taxes, and zero employee pay. The market is pricing in continuous hyper-growth and massive software-like profit margins.</p>\n<p>On the reasonable value side, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QCOM\">$Qualcomm(QCOM)$&nbsp;</a> trades around 4.3x to 4.9x price-to-sales. At roughly 4.5x sales, Qualcomm doesn't require impossible dot-com math to deliver value. It trades at a standard industrial hardware multiple while giving investors exposure to edge AI, automotive tech, and high-margin patent licensing through QTL.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9cbef1b6ea2e4f78b14288011cbfe39b\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"424\"></p></body></html>","text":"Scott McNealy from Sun had a good reality check on this. At 10x revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, the company would have to pay out 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. What were people thinking? That was him back in 2002. In 1999, paying 10x sales for hardware was considered normal right before the Dot-Com crash. Now look at the semiconductor market. The AI hype tier sits above 15x to 25x price-to-sales. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is around 18x price-to-sales, and $Broadcom(AVGO)$ is around 19x. To justify an 18x P/S ratio today, an investor needs 18 years of 100% revenue payouts, assuming zero COGS, zero R&D, zero taxes, and zero employee pay. The market is pricing in continuous hyper-growth and massive software-like profit margins. On the reasonable value side, $Qualcomm(QCOM)$ trades around 4.3x to 4.9x price-to-sales. At roughly 4.5x sales, Qualcomm doesn't require impossible dot-com math to deliver value. It trades at a standard industrial hardware multiple while giving investors exposure to edge AI, automotive tech, and high-margin patent licensing through QTL.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/612392086426080","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["NVDA","AVGO","QCOM"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":922,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/612392086426080"}