B — 100K–200K. I expect September payroll growth to land around
120K–150K. August’s 162K gain showed the labor market still has some resilience, but the broader trend is clearly cooling, while private hiring has been relatively subdued.
The interesting part is that “good jobs data” may not mean good news for stocks. A strong print could push October hike expectations higher, lifting Treasury yields and pressuring high-duration tech valuations. But a moderate slowdown could be the sweet spot: enough cooling to reduce rate pressure without triggering recession fears.
With oil prices already adding inflation risk, I’m watching wages and unemployment more than the headline payroll number. If payrolls come in around 130K with wage growth cooling, markets may interpret it as a soft landing signal rather than a recession warning.
My call: B, around 130K. The real market mover may be the Fed reaction, not the jobs number itself.
@TigerEvents [思考]
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