$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$   vs $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  what would you pick? 

At around $1,865, ASML has already had a strong run, so I wouldn’t go all-in today. But I don’t think it’s too late for a 3–5+ year position.

Why I like ASML

ASML is arguably the “picks-and-shovels” monopoly behind advanced AI chips. TSMC, Samsung and Intel need ASML’s lithography equipment to manufacture increasingly advanced chips.

The fundamentals are impressive:

* Q2 2026 revenue: €9.33B

* Q2 net income: €2.92B

* Gross margin: 54%

* 2026 revenue guidance was raised substantially to €43–45B

* Q3 guidance: €11–12B revenue

* ASML says AI investment is driving stronger demand for advanced Logic and Memory capacity.

* Current forecasts put long-term earnings growth around 21.5% annually.

And importantly, Q3 results are due October 14, so there is a near-term catalyst — but also event risk.

NVDA vs ASML for you

NVDA ASML

AI growth ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Competitive moat ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐+

Current valuation Better More expensive

Growth potential Higher Very strong

Cyclical risk Medium Higher

Monopoly advantage Strong Exceptional

My 5-year confidence 9/10 9/10

I slightly prefer ASML as a diversification play.

You already have exposure to semiconductor/AI names. Owning ASML gives you exposure to the equipment layer rather than another chip designer.

How I’d buy it

I would not chase $1,865 immediately with a full position.

I’d use something like:

$1,850–1,900 → 25% position
$1,700–1,800 → another 25%
$1,550–1,700 → another 25%
Major correction → final 25%

The interesting thing is that ASML’s valuation has become a concern after the big run; some current analysis puts it around 38× forward earnings, so you’re paying a premium for that monopoly.

My ranking right now

If I had fresh money specifically for AI/semiconductors:

1. NVDA — best combination of growth + valuation
2. ASML — best semiconductor infrastructure/moat
3. AMD — higher risk/higher upside
4. TSM — excellent business but geopolitical risk
5. QCOM — cheaper/lagging, but less direct AI exposure

So yes, I would buy ASML, but I’d make it a gradual accumulation rather than a chase.

One thing I’d pay particular attention to: ASML reports Q3 on October 14. Given how much the stock has already moved, I would be comfortable starting only a small position before earnings and keeping cash available in case the market gives you a better entry.