Lanceljx
10-07 10:34

Iā€™m not chasing the S&P 500 above 7,800. šŸ“ˆ


Record highs alone are not a reason to sell, but valuations and market concentration make Q3 earnings especially important. I want to see whether earnings growth and guidance can justify the latest repricing, particularly across AI, memory, optical communications and power infrastructure.


The easing 10-year Treasury yield is supportive, but if yields reverse higher or mega-cap guidance disappoints, the market could quickly test how much optimism is already priced in.


My approach: keep DCA-ing into broad-market ETFs rather than trying to time the top, while keeping some cash ready for a meaningful pullback. I would rather add more aggressively after a correction than chase a euphoric rally.


So Iā€™m still participating, just not accelerating. Earnings need to prove that fundamentals can catch up with prices. šŸ“Š

Fed Minutes Signal Another Hike, Yet Long-End Yields Hit New Highs First?
Stocks fell Wednesday: Dow -0.66% to 51,179.87, S&P 500 -0.22% to 7,801.77, Nasdaq -0.22% to 27,538.69, QQQ -0.25% to $757.73. The 10-year hit 5.366%, 30-year 5.728%, both highest since 2002. Minutes showed all 19 policymakers backed the 25bp hike, split on whether it was precautionary or a turn tighter; most expect one more this year, no meeting named. Bulls say nothing was more hawkish than priced; bears say fiscal pressure and Treasury supply are unresolved and term premium is lifting the long end, so even if the Fed stops, valuations stay weighted. Long end still up if the Fed stands pat?
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