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A. AI & Technology 🤖

I’ll be watching AI policy most closely, especially any changes around chip export controls, data-centre power infrastructure, AI regulation and government incentives for domestic semiconductor production. These could have significant implications for the entire AI supply chain, from Nvidia and AMD to hyperscalers, utilities and data-centre operators.

Around the midterms, even shifts in expectations for future policy could move valuations before any legislation actually changes.

Last Speech Before Blackout: What Will Warsh Say?

Fed Chair Warsh speaks in Bangkok on October 16 Beijing time, the last official comment before the FOMC blackout ahead of the October 27–28 meeting. Markets price about 80% odds of no move in October and similar odds of a December hike: QQQ closed Thursday -1.34% at $747.58, SPY -0.42% at $773.93. On October 7 the 10-year hit 5.366% and the 30-year 5.728%, both highest since 2002. Bulls say the hold is priced and a non-hawkish speech lifts an overhang; bears say term premium and fiscal imbalances drive the long end, and the Fed can't fix either. What do you want to hear from Warsh?

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