I’d vote A: stronger-than-expected corporate earnings.
At this stage of the bull market, valuations already reflect plenty of optimism around AI and future growth. To push the S&P 500 sustainably higher into Q4, I think companies need to prove that earnings can catch up with those expectations.
AI monetisation remains important, but it ultimately needs to translate into revenue, margins and free cash flow. Lower inflation and rates would help valuations, but easing driven by economic weakness could be a mixed blessing.
So Q3 earnings are the key test for me. Strong earnings plus resilient guidance would justify higher prices. If earnings disappoint, high valuations leave much less room for error, regardless of the AI narrative.
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