If ASML’s order book had disappointed, I think the damage would have spread well beyond semis.

ASML sits near the front of the AI capex chain. Weak bookings would raise questions not only about chipmakers, but also data-centre equipment, power, cooling and other infrastructure names whose valuations assume years of sustained AI investment. The second-order hit could reach the mega-cap hyperscalers if investors start questioning whether their enormous capex plans will generate adequate returns.

But ASML actually delivered the opposite signal. Customers are raising equipment forecasts, order momentum is increasing, and ASML says planned supply for 2027-28 may not meet demand. Some customers are even discussing 2029-30 orders.

That makes TSMC the next confirmation test. If TSMC also maintains strong AI demand and capacity guidance, the argument for an imminent broad AI-capex slowdown becomes considerably harder to make.