The data still looks closer to “spending as usual” than broad cutbacks. JPMorgan’s debit and credit card spending rose 10% YoY, while Citi reported US card spending up 11%. Credit quality is holding up too, with JPMorgan’s card charge-off rate falling to 2.91%.
But I would not interpret that as consumers feeling comfortable. Persistent inflation and high borrowing costs are squeezing affordability, and banks are preparing for risks beneath the surface.
For me, the warning signal would be spending slowing at the same time as delinquencies and charge-offs start rising. Until then, the US consumer looks resilient, but increasingly dependent on employment and wage growth staying strong.
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