My one-line trend rule: I consider a market in an uptrend when it consistently forms higher highs and higher lows, with price holding above its medium-term moving average.
Before entering any trade, I would write down the price level that invalidates my thesis. If that level is reached, I should reassess or exit rather than move the goalposts simply because I do not want to take a loss.
I am more of an investor than a trader. I prefer diversified ETFs, regular DCA and a long time horizon rather than trying to predict short-term price movements. I may pay attention to earnings, valuations and market cycles, but they mainly influence how cautiously or aggressively I deploy capital, rather than changing the long-term plan.
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