Lanceljx
10-16 09:48

I would focus on HBM rather than chase a broad memory rebound.


SK Hynix still has the strongest technology and market position in HBM, while Micron may offer the more interesting catch-up story if it continues gaining HBM share and securing long-term AI orders. Micron has also said demand should exceed supply through 2027 and 2028, which suggests CXMT’s expansion may not immediately create an industry-wide glut.


CXMT is a genuine longer-term threat, especially in conventional server DRAM, but advanced HBM remains much harder to replicate at scale.


SanDisk and WDC could recover with strong data-centre storage demand, but that is a somewhat different AI infrastructure thesis and I would rank it behind HBM for now.


My preference: SK Hynix technology lead > Micron HBM share gains > SanDisk/WDC recovery.


The key signal to watch is not simply CXMT capacity. It is whether CXMT starts winning major server customers while closing the yield and technology gap. Until then, I would view the HBM leaders as better positioned than commodity memory.

CXMT Targets Server Memory — Is Memory Stock Repricing Done?
Micron, SanDisk, SK Hynix, and Western Digital fell 4%–6%, while a 2x SK Hynix product plunged 22.69%. CXMT’s reported server DRAM expansion intensified competition fears as inflation pressured valuations and traditional-memory pricing expectations. Bulls cite production barriers and resilient HBM demand; bears warn that added supply could weaken DRAM prices and margins. Should investors focus on Micron’s HBM share, SK Hynix’s technology lead, or a SanDisk/WDC recovery?
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