Meta enters earnings with high expectations, so simply beating estimates may not be enough. I think the biggest drivers will be ad revenue growth, AI-driven improvements in engagement and advertising efficiency, and management’s outlook for AI spending.

I would hold rather than aggressively buy before earnings. Meta’s AI investments appear increasingly tied to its core advertising engine, but rising capex remains a key risk. If earnings show that AI spending is translating into faster revenue and profit growth, I would be more comfortable adding after the results.

A huge +8% move needs a major surprise. My base case is a solid report and a more moderate positive reaction.