$XP 20261030 14.0 PUT$ XP Inc. (XP) — Sell-Put Risk Screening
Bottom line up front: XP is not currently a "low risk" sell-put candidate, and the standard sell-put candidate screen returned no data. The reason is not a data gap — it is that XP fell -48.63% today (2026-10-27), from a 30.41 close to 15.62, on ~83M shares (volume ratio ~14.9x). A one-day halving is exactly the regime where put-selling risk is highest, not lowest.
What happened
Metric Value
Last price (2026-10-27) 15.62 USD
Previous close 30.41 USD
Change -14.79 USD / -48.63%
Intraday range 13.78 – 16.02
Volume 83.1M (vs ~13.6M 30-day average)
52-week range 13.78 – 32.73
Position in 52w range 9.97% (near the bottom)
The stock ran from ~20 to 32.73 between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-12, then gave all of it back and more in a single session. The move is a gap-down, not a gradual decline — the 2026-10-26 bar opened at 14.55 versus the prior 30.41 close. I could not retrieve a confirmed news catalyst from the available sources; the only community commentary found referenced Brazilian election risk alongside elevated IV . Treat the specific cause as unconfirmed — that matters, because the risk profile of selling puts differs materially between "one-off event, price overreacted" and "structural earnings/regulatory impairment."
Why the standard screen is empty
The sell-put candidate list returned no recent entries for XP. Combined with the chain data, the picture is consistent: implied volatility is extreme and the option market is pricing a very wide distribution, so the screen's candidate criteria are not being met.
Volatility context (as of 2026-10-26):
Metric Latest 52w high 52w low 52w avg
IV 73.78% 118.81% (2026-10-22) 28.95% (2026-05-19) 52.55%
HV 104.52% 105.10% (2026-10-23) 22.58% (2026-01-16) 48.12%
IV percentile 95.22% — — —
IV sits in the 95th percentile of the past year. Critically, HV (104.52%) is now above IV (73.78%) — IV/HV ratio 0.71. That is unusual: it means realised volatility has already exceeded what options are implying. For a put seller this cuts both ways — premium looks rich in absolute terms, but the market is not compensating you above the rate at which the stock is actually moving.
Where the strikes sit
XP's spot is 15.62. The put chain is almost entirely in the money at strikes above spot, which tells you the listed strike ladder was built around a ~$30 stock and has not re-centred.
2026-11-06 expiry (10 DTE), selected puts:
Strike Bid Ask IV Delta Prob. of profit Premium rate
13.0 — 0.45 90.4% -0.112 11.5% -17.87%
14.0 0.20 0.50 83.5% -0.208 19.0% -12.43%
15.0 0.45 0.80 82.2% -0.359 28.6% -8.09%
16.0 0.95 1.25 80.2% -0.531 36.9% -4.76%
2026-11-20 expiry (24 DTE), selected puts:
Strike Bid Ask IV Delta Prob. of profit Premium rate
14.0 0.35 0.50 67.9% -0.240 21.7% -13.24%
15.0 0.75 0.90 70.5% -0.374 29.8% -9.47%
16.0 1.25 1.45 75.5% -0.503 36.1% -6.91%
17.0 1.90 2.15 66.6% -0.647 41.6% -3.71%
Note the probability of profit is the probability the position is profitable at expiry, not the probability of assignment — the further out of the money the strike, the higher this number. Reading it as assignment risk inverts the direction.
Illustrative premium-on-notional at mid, for the 2026-11-20 expiry: the 15 strike collects ~0.825 on 15.00 notional ≈ 5.5% over 24 days; the 14 strike collects ~0.425 on 14.00 ≈ 3.0% . These are period returns, not annualised, and are gross of fees and assignment risk.
The structural risk that matters most
The zero-gamma level is 13.13 , and the put wall sits at 20.00 with the largest put open interest at 22.00 (32,546 contracts) and 20.00 (31,500 contracts). Spot at 15.62 is above zero-gamma, and net GEX is positive (+1.67M), which normally leans toward range-bound action. But that reading is stale — it was computed on a chain whose strikes and open interest were accumulated when the stock traded near 30. After a gap of this size, dealer positioning is being repriced in real time and the positive-gamma cushion is far less reliable than the headline number suggests.
Positioning confirms the damage: profit ratio 15.19% — only about 15% of the float's estimated cost basis is in the money, meaning the large volume clusters at 28–32 are now deeply trapped. Average cost is 21.42 versus spot 15.62. That overhead supply is a persistent headwind to any recovery.
Short interest is not the story: 18.3M shares as of 2026-09-30, days-to-cover 2.53. There is no squeeze fuel here.
Valuation — cheap, but cheap for a reason
Metric Value
PE TTM 8.01
Forward PE 13.78 (vs 11.04 average, +1σ 13.41)
PB 1.56
PS TTM 2.08
ROE 22.56%
Dividend yield 2.50%
The trailing PE of 8 looks optically cheap, but note the forward PE (13.78) is now above its own +1 standard deviation (13.41) — the market is pricing a sharp earnings decline ahead, not a bargain. Latest reported period is 2026H1 (filed 2026-08-18). A forward multiple expanding above the historical band after a 49% drawdown is a signal that estimates are being cut, not that the stock is mispriced.
Framework if you still want to consider it
I cannot recommend a strike or tell you to act — that is your decision. What I can give you is the conditional structure:
The core trade-off: selling puts here means underwriting a name whose realised volatility (104.5%) exceeds its implied (73.8%). You are being paid less than the rate at which the stock is actually moving. That is the opposite of the usual put-selling setup.
What would make it more defensible: (1) a confirmed, quantified catalyst that explains the gap and is bounded — e.g. a one-time regulatory or election-driven de-rating rather than an earnings reset; (2) HV falling back below IV, restoring the normal premium-for-risk relationship; (3) price stabilising and holding above the 13.78 low for several sessions, so the distribution narrows.
What would invalidate it: an unresolved cause for the drop, a further leg down through 13.78, or estimate revisions that keep pushing forward PE higher.
Monitoring indicators: the 2026-11-17 Q3 earnings date (post-close, per the earnings calendar), whether IV/HV stays below 1, the 13.78 low, and whether the 20.00 put wall decays or builds.
Two risks that could materially change this view: first, if the drop reflects a genuine structural impairment to XP's Brazilian retail-investment franchise rather than a sentiment/event shock, then trailing PE of 8 is not a floor and the trapped supply at 28–32 becomes a multi-quarter ceiling. Second, the positive net GEX reading is computed on stale positioning and could flip negative quickly, which would amplify rather than dampen further moves.
If you want, I can pull the 2026-11-17 expiry chain specifically, or check whether the same setup exists in a peer Brazilian financial name for comparison.
Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. | Side | Price | Filled | Realized P&L |
|---|
| Sell Open | 0.15 1Lot(s) | +33.34% Holding |
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