$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Short answer: the evidence points to the selling having lost momentum rather than the pullback being confirmed over. Price has already stabilised and money flow has turned, but the trend structure is still bearish and the stock is sitting right under overhead supply — so this reads more like a pause inside a correction than a completed bottom.
What has actually changed
Item Reading Date
Oct 22 drop 221.97 → 212.21, −4.40% on 125.4M shares (vs ~115M 60-day average) 2026-10-22
Oct 23 −0.59% to 210.96 on 80.2M shares — volume dried up 2026-10-23
Oct 26 +2.39% to 216.00 on 90.8M shares 2026-10-26
Oct 27 pre-market ~217.84 (+3.26% vs Friday's close) 2026-10-27
Distance from 52-wk high (243.37, 2026-10-06) −11.25% —
Three things argue the worst of the flush is behind us:
Volume signature. The 4.4% down day was the heaviest volume since Oct 15, but the follow-through day on Oct 23 saw volume collapse to 80M — classic exhaustion rather than continued distribution. The rebound on Oct 26 came on modestly higher volume (90.8M), which is only mildly confirmatory.
Capital flow flipped. The five-day large-order outflow series was −42.8M / −77.3M / −60.1M / −81.7M / −42.0M (Oct 19–23), with Oct 23 the smallest of the run. On Oct 26 net flow turned slightly positive (total inflow 5.704B vs outflow 5.613B; big-order inflow 665M vs outflow 568M). That is a deceleration-then-reversal pattern, not a continuation pattern.
Oversold relief. RSI(6) bottomed at 19.8 on Oct 16 and 29.5 on Oct 23, now back to 44.0. KDJ's K line has turned up from 13.5 to 21.3. The stock closed Oct 26 above the lower Bollinger band (207.45).
What still argues against "fully run its course"
MACD is still deteriorating. DIF has fallen every session from −1.27 (Oct 21) to −2.73 (Oct 26), and DEA just crossed below zero (−0.94). The histogram is shrinking (−4.30 → −3.56), which is early stabilisation, but no bullish crossover exists yet.
Price is below the 20-day mean. Bollinger mid-band is 224.90 and the 20-day change is −5.62%. The Oct 26 bounce is a rebound into resistance, not a reclaim of the trend.
The 210–212 shelf is unproven. The Oct 23 low of 210.18 held, and the tool's support reference sits at 194.10 with resistance at 224.37 — a wide, unresolved band. A retest of 210 that holds on light volume would be the more reliable "course complete" signal.
Options are priced for movement, not calm. IV is 46.3% at the 75th percentile with IV/HV at 1.53 — the market is still paying up for protection. Put/call volume at 0.34 (call-heavy) shows positioning is not capitulated, which cuts both ways: less forced selling left, but also less fear washed out. Large prints skew to put buying (Dec 18 195 puts, Dec 4 200 puts) alongside put selling further out.
The driver was macro, not company-specific. The Oct 22 selloff was a broad AI-complex drawdown tied to AI-financing and capex-return concerns, with the Nasdaq down over 2% that session
Xueqiu
Xueqiu
. That kind of factor-driven de-rating does not resolve on a two-day bounce; it resolves on a catalyst.
What would confirm vs. invalidate
Confirmation of a completed pullback: a close above the 20-day mean (~224–225) with volume above the ~115M average, MACD histogram turning positive, and sustained positive large-order flow for 3+ sessions.
Invalidation: a close below 210 on expanding volume, which would target the 194 support reference and re-open the deeper correction scenario.
Key catalyst to watch: the next earnings report is the natural resolution point for the AI-capex debate — I could not verify the exact date from available sources, so check the company's IR calendar before positioning around it.
Net: the acute selling phase looks largely spent, but the stock has not yet earned a trend-repair signal. Treat 210 as the line that separates "consolidation" from "second leg down."
Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. | Side | Price | Filled | Realized P&L |
|---|
| Buy Open | 216.11 0 | -1.03% Holding |
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