AdamDavis
10-27

$Oracle(ORCL)$ When the stock was at $345, the RPO backlog was $455 billion. Now with the stock at $126, that backlog has climbed to $664 billion. So there's $209 billion in guaranteed contract revenue locked in while the market value got cut by more than half.

At the same time, the P/E multiple dropped from 72x down to 20x trailing, and 15.5x forward.

I just find it interesting that if this whole cycle falls apart, every hyperscaler would evaporate. But if it doesn't, this is the only one with a backlog larger than its market cap and triple-digit percentage growth in cloud/OCI.

Even executing 50% of that backlog, let alone the full $664 billion, would already be a massive rerating. And yes, there is large exposure to OpenAI, but even in a worst-case scenario where only 40-50% of the entire RPO is captured, it still looks deeply undervalued.

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