I’d pick Azure and Google Cloud over chip orders as the clearest proof that AI spending is paying off. Chip orders show that infrastructure is still being built, but cloud revenue shows customers are actually paying to use that infrastructure. The strongest signal would be accelerating Azure or Google Cloud growth alongside improving margins and resilient free cash flow. If capex keeps surging while cash flow deteriorates, strong chip demand alone does not prove attractive AI returns. Between the two, I’m watching Google Cloud closely given its expected faster growth, while Microsoft’s new Azure revenue disclosure should give investors much better visibility.
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