Google Cloud is the number Iβd watch most closely. If revenue approaches or beats the expected US$29B while margins remain around the 30%+ range, that would be strong evidence that Alphabet is not merely spending heavily on AI but successfully monetising the demand.
Search is the second test. Gemini does not need to replace traditional Search economics. It needs to strengthen engagement without damaging advertising monetisation.
The concern is the enormous US$195β205B capex plan and recent negative free cash flow. At this valuation, simply beating EPS may not be enough. Wall Street will want evidence that AI revenue is catching up with AI spending.
Iβd therefore wait until after earnings rather than buy immediately beforehand. A strong report with a weak stock reaction could actually provide the more interesting entry. π―
Comments