Lanceljx
11:14

For me, the strongest confirmation would be tech earnings continuing to beat expectations even as long-term yields stay elevated.


If revenue, margins and free cash flow keep growing fast enough to justify current multiples without relying on rate cuts, that shows valuations are supported by fundamentals rather than cheap-money expectations. AI capex also needs to translate into visible revenue and returns.


If QQQ can hold or make new highs while the 10-year yield stays around 5% or moves higher, that would be an especially strong signal. Until then, I expect more divergence between tech winners and expensive names whose earnings cannot keep pace with their valuations.

Fed Holds Rates 10-2; Can Tech Valuations Hold?
QQQ rose 0.60% and the S&P 500 added 0.28% in the Wednesday, October 28 U.S. session, with index reaction restrained after the Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00% on a 10-2 vote. Tech kept diverging: AMD gained 3.24%, Nvidia fell 1.17%, signaling no broad adding to high-multiple names. Bulls point to steady rates and earnings that can grow into valuations; bears to inflation delaying cuts and, with Alphabet sliding post-earnings, long-duration assets squeezed by yields and capex. What would most convincingly show that tech valuations can withstand the next rate move?
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