Coinbase reported Q3, so here'-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

thewontoninvestor

Coinbase reported Q3, so here's the full rundown and how my 3 tells did.

the headline numbers: net revenue was $1.16B, basically flat on last quarter but down 34% on last year. transaction revenue was $590M (down 44% YoY) because consumer spot trading volume fell 59%, and monthly transacting users dropped to 7.4M from 9.3M a year ago. subscriptions and services held up better at $570M, which is now 49% of revenue, so the diversification story is actually showing up in the numbers.

the new stuff is doing real work. prediction markets only launched in February and already passed a $200M annualised run-rate, and together with derivatives they're now about 25% of transaction revenue. trading market share went up for the 4th quarter in a row to 10.7%. the not-so-new stuff is weaker: staking (blockchain rewards) fell 54% to $86M because Solana and Ethereum prices are down.

the $719M net profit looks amazing until you see that $715M of it is Coinbase marking up the crypto it holds. adjusted net income was $78M and adjusted EBITDA was $333M (up 60% QoQ). for Q4, October transaction revenue was about $165M as of Oct 25, and they guided subscriptions and services to $550-630M. stock was down about 2% after hours.

my 3 tells:

✅ USDC on Coinbase averaged $22B, up 49% YoY and about 30% of all USDC. stablecoin revenue went up to $307M from $292M last quarter

❓ what Circle pays its other partners - not addressed. but the 10-Q's own explanation (+$84.6M from higher balances, -$52.8M from lower rates) leaves a ~$50M gap, and my rough maths says it's the off-platform share shrinking

❓ Coinbase getting onto Circle's chain - not addressed

and after paying out $129M in USDC rewards, the USDC leg kept about $178M, down about 17% YoY, with most of that coming from the off-platform share, which is the part getting squeezed (chart attached).

so i'm still holding the core and still not adding. full reasoning is in part 3, give it a read if you haven't!

https://substack.com/@thewontoninvestor/note/p-222484090?r=g6v1z

Binance experienced a security incident! Is panic rising in the crypto market?

The cryptocurrency market has been hit by another major security incident! Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, recently experienced a security incident, with multiple related wallets experiencing large-scale abnormal fund transfers, raising market concerns about the security of exchange assets, the protection of user funds, and the liquidity of the crypto market.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Is panic rising in the crypto market?","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":f75d60df87654f8abebed76f8dac497c}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"The cryptocurrency market has been hit by another major security incident! Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, recently experienced a security incident, with multiple related wallets experiencing large-scale abnormal fund transfers, raising market concerns about the security of exchange assets, the protection of user funds, and the liquidity of the crypto market. \n","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0f162ed56ed4abb6e5ef5021bba68232"}],"images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/30820b45b1b69c6ec5244bca6ffb7229","width":"1280","height":"720"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/30820b45b1b69c6ec5244bca6ffb7229","width":"1280","height":"720"}],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Coinbase reported Q3, so here's the full rundown and how my 3 tells did.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>the headline numbers: net revenue was $1.16B, basically flat on last quarter but down 34% on last year. transaction revenue was $590M (down 44% YoY) because consumer spot trading volume fell 59%, and monthly transacting users dropped to 7.4M from 9.3M a year ago. subscriptions and services held up better at $570M, which is now 49% of revenue, so the diversification story is actually showing up in the numbers.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>the new stuff is doing real work. prediction markets only launched in February and already passed a $200M annualised run-rate, and together with derivatives they're now about 25% of transaction revenue. trading market share went up for the 4th quarter in a row to 10.7%. the not-so-new stuff is weaker: staking (blockchain rewards) fell 54% to $86M because Solana and Ethereum prices are down.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>the $719M net profit looks amazing until you see that $715M of it is Coinbase marking up the crypto it holds. adjusted net income was $78M and adjusted EBITDA was $333M (up 60% QoQ). for Q4, October transaction revenue was about $165M as of Oct 25, and they guided subscriptions and services to $550-630M. stock was down about 2% after hours.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>my 3 tells:</p>\n<p>✅ USDC on Coinbase averaged $22B, up 49% YoY and about 30% of all USDC. stablecoin revenue went up to $307M from $292M last quarter</p>\n<p>❓ what Circle pays its other partners - not addressed. but the 10-Q's own explanation (+$84.6M from higher balances, -$52.8M from lower rates) leaves a ~$50M gap, and my rough maths says it's the off-platform share shrinking</p>\n<p>❓ Coinbase getting onto Circle's chain - not addressed</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>and after paying out $129M in USDC rewards, the USDC leg kept about $178M, down about 17% YoY, with most of that coming from the off-platform share, which is the part getting squeezed (chart attached).</p>\n<p>so i'm still holding the core and still not adding. full reasoning is in part 3, give it a read if you haven't!</p>\n<p>https://substack.com/@thewontoninvestor/note/p-222484090?r=g6v1z</p><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/30820b45b1b69c6ec5244bca6ffb7229\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\"></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Coinbase reported Q3, so here's the full rundown and how my 3 tells did.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>the headline numbers: net revenue was $1.16B, basically flat on last quarter but down 34% on last year. transaction revenue was $590M (down 44% YoY) because consumer spot trading volume fell 59%, and monthly transacting users dropped to 7.4M from 9.3M a year ago. subscriptions and services held up better at $570M, which is now 49% of revenue, so the diversification story is actually showing up in the numbers.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>the new stuff is doing real work. prediction markets only launched in February and already passed a $200M annualised run-rate, and together with derivatives they're now about 25% of transaction revenue. trading market share went up for the 4th quarter in a row to 10.7%. the not-so-new stuff is weaker: staking (blockchain rewards) fell 54% to $86M because Solana and Ethereum prices are down.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>the $719M net profit looks amazing until you see that $715M of it is Coinbase marking up the crypto it holds. adjusted net income was $78M and adjusted EBITDA was $333M (up 60% QoQ). for Q4, October transaction revenue was about $165M as of Oct 25, and they guided subscriptions and services to $550-630M. stock was down about 2% after hours.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>my 3 tells:</p>\n<p>✅ USDC on Coinbase averaged $22B, up 49% YoY and about 30% of all USDC. stablecoin revenue went up to $307M from $292M last quarter</p>\n<p>❓ what Circle pays its other partners - not addressed. but the 10-Q's own explanation (+$84.6M from higher balances, -$52.8M from lower rates) leaves a ~$50M gap, and my rough maths says it's the off-platform share shrinking</p>\n<p>❓ Coinbase getting onto Circle's chain - not addressed</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>and after paying out $129M in USDC rewards, the USDC leg kept about $178M, down about 17% YoY, with most of that coming from the off-platform share, which is the part getting squeezed (chart attached).</p>\n<p>so i'm still holding the core and still not adding. full reasoning is in part 3, give it a read if you haven't!</p>\n<p>https://substack.com/@thewontoninvestor/note/p-222484090?r=g6v1z</p><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/30820b45b1b69c6ec5244bca6ffb7229\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\"></body></html>","text":"Coinbase reported Q3, so here's the full rundown and how my 3 tells did. the headline numbers: net revenue was $1.16B, basically flat on last quarter but down 34% on last year. transaction revenue was $590M (down 44% YoY) because consumer spot trading volume fell 59%, and monthly transacting users dropped to 7.4M from 9.3M a year ago. subscriptions and services held up better at $570M, which is now 49% of revenue, so the diversification story is actually showing up in the numbers. the new stuff is doing real work. prediction markets only launched in February and already passed a $200M annualised run-rate, and together with derivatives they're now about 25% of transaction revenue. trading market share went up for the 4th quarter in a row to 10.7%. the not-so-new stuff is weaker: staking (blockchain rewards) fell 54% to $86M because Solana and Ethereum prices are down. the $719M net profit looks amazing until you see that $715M of it is Coinbase marking up the crypto it holds. adjusted net income was $78M and adjusted EBITDA was $333M (up 60% QoQ). for Q4, October transaction revenue was about $165M as of Oct 25, and they guided subscriptions and services to $550-630M. stock was down about 2% after hours. my 3 tells: ✅ USDC on Coinbase averaged $22B, up 49% YoY and about 30% of all USDC. stablecoin revenue went up to $307M from $292M last quarter ❓ what Circle pays its other partners - not addressed. but the 10-Q's own explanation (+$84.6M from higher balances, -$52.8M from lower rates) leaves a ~$50M gap, and my rough maths says it's the off-platform share shrinking ❓ Coinbase getting onto Circle's chain - not addressed and after paying out $129M in USDC rewards, the USDC leg kept about $178M, down about 17% YoY, with most of that coming from the off-platform share, which is the part getting squeezed (chart attached). so i'm still holding the core and still not adding. full reasoning is in part 3, give it a read if you haven't! https://substack.com/@thewontoninvestor/note/p-222484090?r=g6v1z","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/624046516744912","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":695,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1685,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/624046516744912"}