AMD reports tomorrow: a beat doesn't mean it goes up

thewontoninvestor

AMD reports Q3 tomorrow night (US time), so here's the thing i keep reminding myself before every print.

the last 5 times AMD reported:

- Q2 2026: beat by 3.1%, stock -7.0% the next day

- Q1 2026: beat by 5.9%, stock +18.6%

- Q4 2025: beat by 16.0%, stock -17.3%

- Q3 2025: beat by 2.4%, stock +2.5%

- Q2 2025: missed by 0.5%, stock -6.4%

so 4 beats, and the stock only went up after 2 of them. last quarter they beat, raised guidance, and still fell 7% because gross margin came in 2 points light.

if i do buy on an earnings print, these are my rules: size it like a lottery ticket, use swing-trading money not long-term money, no averaging down if it goes wrong, and write the exit down before going in. but AMD is already at nearly 10% of my portfolio, so i'll probably not buy before earnings this time. will consider loading if it dips further though...

are you holding AMD through the print, or sitting it out?

i wrote the full breakdown (plus how i got my DeepSeek call right for the wrong reason) on my substack: https://thewontoninvestor.substack.com/p/everyone-pivoted-to-ai-i-still-hold?r=g6v1z

disclosure: i hold AMD. not financial advice.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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raised guidance, and still fell 7% because gross margin came in 2 points light.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>if i do buy on an earnings print, these are my rules: size it like a lottery ticket, use swing-trading money not long-term money, no averaging down if it goes wrong, and write the exit down before going in. but AMD is already at nearly 10% of my portfolio, so i'll probably not buy before earnings this time. will consider loading if it dips further though...</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>are you holding AMD through the print, or sitting it out?</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>i wrote the full breakdown (plus how i got my DeepSeek call right for the wrong reason) on my substack: https://thewontoninvestor.substack.com/p/everyone-pivoted-to-ai-i-still-hold?r=g6v1z</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>disclosure: i hold AMD. not financial advice.</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>AMD reports Q3 tomorrow night (US time), so here's the thing i keep reminding myself before every print.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>the last 5 times AMD reported:</p>\n<p>- Q2 2026: beat by 3.1%, stock -7.0% the next day</p>\n<p>- Q1 2026: beat by 5.9%, stock +18.6%</p>\n<p>- Q4 2025: beat by 16.0%, stock -17.3%</p>\n<p>- Q3 2025: beat by 2.4%, stock +2.5%</p>\n<p>- Q2 2025: missed by 0.5%, stock -6.4%</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>so 4 beats, and the stock only went up after 2 of them. last quarter they beat, raised guidance, and still fell 7% because gross margin came in 2 points light.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>if i do buy on an earnings print, these are my rules: size it like a lottery ticket, use swing-trading money not long-term money, no averaging down if it goes wrong, and write the exit down before going in. but AMD is already at nearly 10% of my portfolio, so i'll probably not buy before earnings this time. will consider loading if it dips further though...</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>are you holding AMD through the print, or sitting it out?</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>i wrote the full breakdown (plus how i got my DeepSeek call right for the wrong reason) on my substack: https://thewontoninvestor.substack.com/p/everyone-pivoted-to-ai-i-still-hold?r=g6v1z</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>disclosure: i hold AMD. not financial advice.</p></body></html>","text":"AMD reports Q3 tomorrow night (US time), so here's the thing i keep reminding myself before every print. the last 5 times AMD reported: - Q2 2026: beat by 3.1%, stock -7.0% the next day - Q1 2026: beat by 5.9%, stock +18.6% - Q4 2025: beat by 16.0%, stock -17.3% - Q3 2025: beat by 2.4%, stock +2.5% - Q2 2025: missed by 0.5%, stock -6.4% so 4 beats, and the stock only went up after 2 of them. last quarter they beat, raised guidance, and still fell 7% because gross margin came in 2 points light. if i do buy on an earnings print, these are my rules: size it like a lottery ticket, use swing-trading money not long-term money, no averaging down if it goes wrong, and write the exit down before going in. but AMD is already at nearly 10% of my portfolio, so i'll probably not buy before earnings this time. will consider loading if it dips further though... are you holding AMD through the print, or sitting it out? i wrote the full breakdown (plus how i got my DeepSeek call right for the wrong reason) on my substack: https://thewontoninvestor.substack.com/p/everyone-pivoted-to-ai-i-still-hold?r=g6v1z disclosure: i hold AMD. not financial 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