I would prefer to wait for stronger confirmation before taking a meaningful position in CRCL. Q3 2026 provides encouraging signs: USDC on-chain transaction volume grew 49% YoY to $13.9 trillion, average circulation increased 8% to $73.3 billion, and USDC held on Circle's platform rose 36%. However, the underlying economics still deserve attention. Reserve income actually declined 8% to $658 million as reserve yields fell to 3.54%, while net reserve margin slipped 80 basis points sequentially to 37.8%, partly reflecting the Hyperliquid incentive arrangement. More importantly, the reported 17% revenue growth and 85% adjusted EBITDA growth included $182 million from the ARC token presale, which should not be treated as recurring earnings. I would watch three indicators before becoming more bullish: sustained quarter-over-quarter USDC circulation growth, improving net reserve margin despite distribution costs, and stronger recurring revenue from payments infrastructure such as CPN and Arc.
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