I believe chip breadth will be the decisive factor, while mega-cap technology and oil prices provide the supporting conditions.

Microsoft, Amazon and Apple can lift the indices through their substantial market weightings, but a sustainable rally requires broader participation. If semiconductor stocks, particularly Nvidia, AMD and memory-chip manufacturers, continue underperforming, it may suggest investors remain unconvinced about the returns on AI capital expenditure.

Meanwhile, falling oil prices could ease inflationary pressures and strengthen expectations of interest rate cuts. However, geopolitical developments remain unpredictable, and cheaper oil alone cannot resolve concerns over stretched technology valuations.

My key indicators would be semiconductor performance, market breadth and earnings guidance. A rally driven by a handful of mega-cap stocks is vulnerable. Broader participation, supported by improving earnings and cash flow, would provide stronger evidence of a sustainable recovery.