Abstract:
In our 4Q outlook, we will review the impact of major events in the third quarter and provide our forecasts for global markets in the fourth quarter.
The prolonged warfare between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with extreme weather conditions has exacerbated the energy and food crisis in Europe. Broadening inflationary pressure from food and energy to shelter, medical and services on the back of a historically tight labor market has accelerated the pace of rate hikes in the US. Market volatility was elevated by a spike in global bond yields and rising risk aversion amid cautious earnings outlook of global mega corporates.In terms of portfolio strategy, we suggest investors staying defensive. Fixed income allocation should keep duration short-to-medium with overweight in investment grade (IG) bonds. Equity allocation should seek a balance between growth and value and look for quality assets at attractive valuations. At the same time, we stay overweight cash / liquidity for further allocation when asset prices reach undemanding to distressed valuation.
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