After Taper begins, the market has been hit by triple bad news.

If the current crude oil market is regarded as a seesaw battlefield between OPEC countries and major crude oil demand countries ,Then the second sharp drop in crude oil can be the latest small victory of the United States, so we have to wait and see how the two sides will move next.​​

​Biden and the Federal Reserve both hate high oil prices, which is beyond doubt. At present, the biggest enemy of the Federal Reserve is inflation. If the long-term inflation expectations are knocked down, it means that the Federal Reserve can slow down the pace of taper, or even postpone the time of raising interest rates, so that US stocks can continue to play music and dance. The primary enemy of inflation is naturally the price of crude oil.

Let's take a look at what hit the latest crude oil bottom:

Triple negative crown after taper:

Bad 1: Omicron triggers risk aversion

According to media reports, the situation in Europe has worsened since Sunday, and a new outbreak has occurred in Britain-possibly increasing hundreds of thousands of Omicron cases.

The UK government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies believes the infection rate is at its highest level in London, which has now entered a state of major events, according to minutes of its December 16 meeting released Saturday.

This morning, the news of Holland's closure came out again, and the market suddenly panicked.

But there is a doubtful point to discuss:Why, when Omicron just broke out last week, The virus has never been so rampant and dangerous, On the contrary, some pharmaceutical companies say that their vaccines are still effective against these new viruses. Within one week after the discovery of the new virus, the transmission route blossomed in an umbrella shape. Omicron appeared in Europe, America, Korea, Japan, Hong Kong and even the mainland, but the spread of the virus did not get out of control. US stocks also bottomed out after FOMC, and the wind was light and clear, but only after a weekend, the world changed?

And have you noticed that these widely spread areas are Europe and America: the Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, Austria and other countries have introduced stricter blockade policies? However, there is no news about the blockade in the Asia-Pacific region.

Bad 2: Goldman Sachs lowered its US GDP forecast

Goldman Sachs Group has lowered its forecast for the GDP growth rate of the United States next year. From the numerical point of view, the downward adjustment is not small:

-Lower the forecast for the first quarter from 3% to 2%;

-Lower the forecast for the second quarter from 3.5% to 3%;

-Lower the forecast for the third quarter from 3% to 2.75%.

Usually, when a well-known big bank publishes such a report for the first time, it will have an impact on the market.

But above all, the reason for Goldman Sachs' cut in U.S. GDP: U.S. Senator Joe Manchin on Sunday rejected an estimated $2 trillion tax and spending bill on the grounds that its passage is likely to exacerbate an already overinflated CPI, giving the White House a sudden blow and creating big problems for Democrat Biden's economic agenda.

This bad news really exceeded expectations,It is said that this agenda has been stranded until January next year, which may cause a political blow to the White House. If the differences cannot be resolved, it will further affect the mid-term elections in the United States in 2022 and the political future of the democratic parties.

Bad 3: Fed officials openly talk about raising interest rates as soon as March

Last Friday, Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that he would raise interest rates as soon as March and start to reduce the Fed's balance sheet in mid-2022. Before that, the market thought that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in March was only 40%, and June was still considered as the most likely month to raise interest rates.

Xu Yaxin, a user in our community, believes that accelerating debt reduction has become an established fact, and the time node will end in March next year, so it is unlikely that this process will be shortened again. The focus of the market began to turn to whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at the end of debt contraction. How can Waller not only break the news to raise interest rates ahead of schedule, but also reduce the table?​​

​This directly scares the market. As shown in the above figure, the current market price is generally expected that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May-June next year, while Waller hints that this time node can be advanced to March.

< p
>Full analysis: The market is frightened, but gold is still expected to break through the short-term market​

What is the trend of oil price market outlook? OPEC and IEA Monthly Report on "Fighting"

The above bad news is all the news from the United States recently. The core is inflation and bad oil prices. However, when we look to the oil-producing countries in the Middle East, it is another momentum. The Saudi Energy Minister just said last week:The bears of oil prices will feel the pain of hell.

However, judging from the sharp drop in crude oil this week, this large-scale face-bashing scene came really too fast.

We should note that OPEC, which represents the interests of oil-producing countries, and EIA, which represents the interests of crude oil demand countries, released completely different supply and demand reports last week:

OPEC Monthly Report: Omicron's influence is limited, and the global oil demand in the first quarter of next year will be greatly raised. OPEC monthly report pointed out that the impact of Omicron strain on demand will be mild and short-lived. OPEC raised its global oil demand forecast for the first quarter of 2022 by 1.11 million barrels per day to 99.13 million barrels per day; In 2022, the global crude oil demand forecast for OPEC will be raised by 200,000 barrels per day to 28.8 million barrels per day.

According to the IEA monthly report, the oil demand forecast for 2021 and 2022 will be lowered by about 100,000 barrels per day, and the global oil supply is expected to increase by 6.4 million barrels per day next year. In addition, the report said that from this month, the global oil supply will exceed the demand. If OPEC + continues to increase production, there will be an oil surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year and 2 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2022.

How do we judge the trend of oil prices when fundamental data references have already gone wrong?

Offer a reward of 800 tiger coins

You say look, the future trend of crude oil prices, good comments at least 20 Tiger Coin reward oh.

Oh, by the way, at 8 o'clock this Thursday evening, we will continue to invite Cheng Jun@程俊DreamLet's talk about his views on the future oil price and gold market. Don't miss it.

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​Live link: Prospects for gold and crude oil trends​

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