Last night in the concept of stocks again plunged, although not as big as before, but this time belongs to no difference injury, I say, now in the concept of stocks fell, is clearly in accordance with the fall to calculate.Look for any medium stock, last night was close to 10 points.And it had already fallen a wave the night before.As for the decline of many stocks this year, it's just plain ugly.
From March began to write in the concept of stock slump, my point of view is more clear, in the concept of stock continued to kill, bottom or awe of the market?This is the end of March when the slump to write, from then all the way to write a lot of articles, basically is not bottom, the only bottom of the post is in September hair, but the amount of control is still good, now has -15%, and I am a daily cast, about bought 6000 dollars.As for the possibility of another 50% drop on this basis, it is really a coincidence, but it was cautious at that time, but according to the current trend, it is not impossible.
In addition to killing valuation, another important factor is that the United States just passed the foreign company accountability act yesterday, which is also the first half of the fall of the fuse.It remains to be seen how the bill will be implemented after its recent passage.
What are the risk points
Standing at this time point, I would like to sort out Chinese concept stocks again. Before, I said that Chinese concept stocks have two risks, policy risk and valuation risk. At present, valuation risk can be basically ignored, but policy risk is still huge.At present, policies in some areas have been implemented continuously, but more policies may still be on the way. At present, the valuation risk is not large, but the sentiment caused by policies still needs to be cautious.
From the beginning of last year, Chinese stocks soared, a year more than ten times the number of stocks, but since the beginning of the slump, this rise almost wiped out, and even continued to kill.The current decline can no longer be explained by fundamentals, but companies with good fundamentals may be more resistant to declines. However, as there will be more foreign investors in stocks with good fundamentals, their selling pressure will offset the strength of fundamentals, so in the stock price trend, there is no difference in the killing.
Can I get the bottom
From a stable point of view, do not copy bottom, even if it fell so much, I think it is still a profit and loss ratio is extremely not cost-effective, so many years of stock trading is the first time to meet this kind of thing, how to evolve and how to coordinate policies, too much uncertainty.The only certainty is that some companies are really very good, but never run the mood of the slump brought by killing, there has been one before, yesterday can be counted once again, the future will not come again, really hard to say, before all the great uncertainty landing, wait-and-see is always the most elegant choice.
How to bottom
At present, in the interconnection plate, the growth of the best is new energy three silly, this is a personal favorite, although also kill very hard, but if the follow-up bottom, the probability will start from here.The growth logic of the whole Internet sector is gradually being falsified. Although many companies are still growing, the growth rate is slowing down. If they can go out to harvest the crops all over the world, it will be a new story.But it wasn't until IQiyi said it was going to lay off 20-40% of its employees that my jaw dropped.But also normal, after all has been financing has been losing money, the number of members up or can not make up for the loss, that share price go, but also no one.
How to view policy risks
Take Didi for example, yesterday officially announced to delist from the United States, there is no need to comment too much on the company's behavior, but many eyes will feel that the stock is not good, and the company will probably not have a good end against the policy, and the management capacity of such a company is also worrying.No matter how big the market share is, most Internet companies cannot withstand the iron fist of the policy. If Didi is completely removed, how long will it take for the domestic travel market to recover and will other companies quickly follow?If wechat is removed, will new social software be launched quickly?If there is no school education, there is no school?
Policy risk is definitely the biggest risk. The moat of many companies is built on the basis of policy stability. If the policy starts to continue to adjust, the valuation of the company and the level of the moat may be broken.Companies that do not pay attention to social image and national development direction are likely to be eliminated. Even if they are not eliminated, they still have to be alert to the irrational operation of the company.$Pinduoduo Inc.(PDD)$
How to follow up
If pass in general idea stock big half year slump you are still in habit copy bottom, that also is to have no what to say really.Bottom-fishing is never the optimal solution, discounted goods can be bought, but discounted stocks are likely to pit, especially 10% of the stock is likely to be a huge pit.$$$to wei (NIO) alibaba (BABA) $$spell (PDD) a lot (LI) $$$$ideal car bi LI bi knots (BILI) $
Afraid to buy the bottom how to do
That question has been asked since March.Do not always think to buy at the bottom, but to buy in the rising trend, if really reversed, even if the chase high, also far safer than now, if it is reversed, the increase is absolutely not twenty or thirty points, may be a wave of several times the market with vigor and force.Never underestimate the power of emotions. They soar throughout the year, a bunch of people say it's unreasonable, and this year a lot of people say it's underestimated, probably the same people.The value of stocks usually switches between overvaluation and undervaluation, and rationality is likely only a matter of a moment.More stocks switch between very overvalued and very undervalued, such as Chinese stocks.
To borrow a phrase seen elsewhere today, the current situation of China concept stock is, if delisted from the US stock market, then also buy what, if not delisted from the US stock market, then buy what $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ $TENCENT(00700)$ $MEITUAN-W(03690)$
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