Tonga volcanic eruption: what is the impact on climate and economy?

Author： Xiao Zhuo

When Omicron disturbed the whole world, the news of Tonga volcanic eruption once again alarmed the sensitive nerves of human society.

Around 12:20 noon on January 15th, Beijing time, a large-scale volcanic eruption occurred in Tonga, a South Pacific island country. The volcanic eruption disrupted Tonga's Internet connection, and the United States, New Zealand, Japan, Australia and other countries also issued tsunami warnings to varying degrees. Satellite detection results show that the highest volcanic ash rushed to an altitude of about 28 kilometers, and even mushroom clouds erupted on satellite cloud images.

Tonga volcanic eruption on H8 satellite cloud image from JMA

According to media reports, Fiji Chinese, who are 800 kilometers away from the volcano, said that when the volcano erupted, the local feelings were very obvious. According to the Volcanic Explosion Intensity Index (VEI), the eruption intensity of Tonga volcano is likely to reach the upper end of VEI5, and may even reach VEI6, which may be one of the strongest volcanic eruptions in the world since Pinatubo, Philippines in 1991.

Strong volcanic eruptions of magnitude 5 and above are rare. According to the statistics of "Chinese Meteorologists", since the 19th century, there have been 11 strong volcanic eruptions of Grade 5 and above (6 times of Grade 5, 4 times of Grade 6 and 1 time of Grade 7), among which the eruption of Tambora volcano in 1815 was the strongest volcanic eruption, and then in 1816, the famous "Year Without Summer" appeared in Europe and North America.

Volcanic eruptions have seriously affected human activities on many occasions, some paralyzing air routes, while others affecting the whole human civilization. After the eruption of Tonga volcano, speculation about the coming of "no summer year" is rampant.

However, from the current situation, there is a high probability that "no summer year" will not appear.

Year without summer? There won't be any now

According to "Voice of Chinese Academy of Sciences", "Can Tonga volcanic eruption lead to" no summer "? Don't panic, look again. The reason why volcanic eruption affects climate is that sulfur dioxide gas from volcanic eruption reaches the stratosphere directly, and sulfuric acid aerosol will be formed in a short time (one or two months), which will be transported to all parts of the world along with stratospheric circulation. Because stratospheric circulation is stable, sulfuric acid will last longer (more than one year), causing near-surface temperature to decrease by blocking solar radiation.

According to the latest satellite monitoring data, the volcanic ash from the submarine volcanic eruption in the waters near Tonga reached a maximum of about 28km, which has reached the middle and lower stratosphere. According to Sentinel 5P/TROPOMI's estimate of sulfur dioxide entering the stratosphere, about 400,000 tons of sulfur dioxide entered the stratosphere.

Volcanic eruption on H8 satellite cloud image from Tropicaltidibits

This numerical distance can have an impact on the global climate, and there is still a big gap. Compared with the eruption of Tambora volcano which caused the "no summer year" in 1816, the magnitude gap is huge. "Voice of Chinese Academy of Sciences" judged that if there is no stronger eruption in the later period, the impact of this volcanic eruption on the global climate is very limited, and it is impossible to cause "no summer year".

However, the blogger "Yunwu Empty City", who is certified by Weibo as the "Master Creator in Geology Field of Planetary Research Institute", also said that it is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent eruption trend of Tonga volcano. Judging from the eruption column exceeding 15,000 meters several times in a row, it can't be ruled out that it will use several 5-level eruptions to make up a "6-level equivalent".

What are the economic impacts?

Although there is a high probability that there will be no abnormal climate with snow and ice in the midsummer of 1816, the negative impact that the largest volcanic eruption in this century may bring to many industrial fields is still worthy of attention.

According to the interpretation report of Huatai Securities, agriculture and agricultural products supply chain, photovoltaic and aviation industries may be affected by volcanic activity.

• Agriculture and agricultural products supply chain

According to the research of the US Geological Survey, several large-scale volcanic eruptions in the past century injected a large amount of sulfur dioxide aerosol into the stratosphere, which increased the reflection of solar radiation into space, causing the average temperature of the Earth's surface to drop by about 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit, and the impact lasted for 1-3 years.

If Tonga volcanic eruption does not stop, the final intensity will reach VIE6, or cause global cooling in the next 1-3 years.

Global cooling is superimposed on La Nina in the northern hemisphere this year. If the accumulated temperature is insufficient, the output of spring sowing crops and fresh fruits and vegetables may be reduced. In addition, corrosive volcanic ash may also hit agriculture-according to the Geological Association of London, 1 cm of volcanic ash can completely destroy crops, and New Zealand, a global agricultural exporter close to Tonga, orAffected.

New Zealand, Australia and other countries play an important role in the global supply chain of dairy products, fresh fruits and vegetables and other agricultural products, and are vulnerable to the secondary impact of volcanic eruption again.

• Photovoltaic

After the eruption of Pinatubo volcano in the Philippines in 1991, about 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide clouds were injected into the stratosphere, which caused the global light to decrease by about 10% that year.

If the final impact of Tonga volcanic eruption is similar, it may have a certain negative impact on global photovoltaic power generation.

• Transportation industry

If volcanic ash spreads in a large area, it may further affect the global aviation industry, reduce transportation efficiency and drag down the global supply chain. Some experts also analyzed that if Tonga volcanic eruption lasts for a long time, the volcanic ash formed will spread to a wider area, which will not rule out the adverse impact on air transportation in the trans-Pacific region.

In 2010, Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull volcano erupted. The VEI4 eruption produced a large amount of volcanic ash, which was blown to the European continent by the wind, and many important routes between Europe and America were forced to close for several months.

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