badumdum
2022-01-09

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$just read on Twitter someone who said he bought into SOFI just on Friday because he sees it as a bank.

A bank? Then we can bring in PB from banks. 

Bank of America - 1.63

Goldman Sachs is doing 1.44

DBS is doing 1.53

And mind you, these are good banks. Good margins, profitable and doing really well. 

And here we have a "Fintech darling", making losses. Not narrowing losses but growing losses. Yes revenue is growing. But so are losses. And going at PB 2.63. 


Not that I mind, as long as it can prove that at some point it stops that haemorrhage and starts being profitable. Now when the Fed was at a furious QE pace, its valuationcan be afforded at even PB 3 or 4 or 5. Meaning investors were willing to crazily pay 5x its book value. This is madness. 

I'd not even touch a proper bank if it is losing money. And I'd value it with less than PB 1 even if I want to buy into potential. So if you ask me how low should SOFI go before it becomes sufficiently attractive in this tapering environment and just before the indices implode? Well PB 0.5 and I might just bite. This would mean it needs to deflate USD 2.50. Yes - USD2.5. I know folks who would start snapping it up at USD5, USD6 or USD7. To put it alongside the current good banks. Well, this also means it needs to come down by at least 50% more.... 

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Comments

  • Frosty4ever
    2022-01-09
    Frosty4ever
    should compare against bank in similar early stage of growth.  need to drill down to reason (s) for the losses.  for growing the business or something else.
    • badumdum
      even at early stages for banks, investors had to be mindful of their valuations. particularly since it costs a lot to set up and competition for consumer dollar is high
    • Frosty4everReplybadumdum
      absolutely. the difficulty is what benchmark(s) is/are appropriate for the company bring analyzed.  there's complexity in comparing traditional banks with Fintech.
  • lalala12334
    2022-01-11
    lalala12334
    this is not just a bank but a Fintech having banking functions. it's supposed to do better than the conventional banks and so it needs to prove what else it can do more than a typical bank
  • Lao Tzu Ang
    2022-01-13
    Lao Tzu Ang
    SOFI is for long term bet. In today's market sentiment, growth is not enough. The company has to show both top and bottom lines.
  • VincentMakkh
    2022-01-13
    VincentMakkh
    Price now is a buy
  • Mel91
    2022-01-12
    Mel91
    thanks for sharing
  • VDIAMOND
    2022-01-12
    VDIAMOND
    [serious] [Thinking]
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