The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its December meeting, which containedNot only does it imply that the time node for the first interest rate hike in 2022 may be advanced, but even more importantly, the "shrinking table" may come faster.
In fact, on December 18, 2021, Federal Reserve Governor Waller released the signal of raising interest rates ahead of schedule in March and then shrinking the table (around June at the earliest), but the market didn't take it seriously at that time.
According to the minutes of the meeting, participants believe that the current economic outlook of the United States is stronger than expected, and compared with the last time when monetary policy normalization began, inflation is higher and the labor market is tighter. They also note that the Fed's balance sheet, both aggregate and relative to nominal GDP, is much larger than at the end of 2014 when QE3 ended.
The minutes also show that participants discussed the appropriate conditions and timing for launching the "reduced table", and how this time it may be different from previous experience. Almost all participants believe that it may be appropriate to start "shrinking the table" at some point after raising interest rates. However, participants also believe that compared with past experience, the appropriate time to start the "scale-down" may be closer to the time point of the first interest rate hike (the last time the scale-down started two years after the interest rate hike). Many others believe that the balance sheet may shrink faster than during the last normalization.
Although the Fed is optimistic about the recovery of the US economy, it believes that there is an upward risk to inflation. What makes the market expectation change greatly is to "shrink the table". According to statistics, the minutes of the meeting mentioned thatBalance sheet 26 times in total, and mentions"Runoff" is also as high as 10 times.
Previously, I once explained to everyone that reducing the number of bond buying is equivalent to tightening the faucet, so accelerating reducing is accelerating tightening the faucet, and in essence, it is still releasing water. For financial markets,What is really terrible is to shrink the watch, because it is called pumping water.
Affected by this,The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose above 1.7%, the highest level since April last year.The market panic index VIX also closed up 16.68%, and the three major stock indexes fell sharply overnight, especially the Nasdaq index closed down 3.34%, mainly because investors were worried about the profitability of high-growth technology stocks under the upward pressure of US bond yields, and chip and software stocks continued to fall,
and their sectors fell together, which eventually caused the Nasdaq to fall much higher than Dow Jones and S&P.
Of course, the precious metal market is inevitably affected. After the release of small non-agricultural ADP data overnight, the resistance of gold price hit 1830 USD/oz again failed, and then accelerated after the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting. As of the opening of North America, the price had tested the bottom support of the daily level channel near 1785.
As shown in the above figure, the starting point of this round of gold rise is at 1752 of the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on December 15th, that is to say, if the daily level cannot hold the support of 1785, it will open up the space to go down to 1750-60.
Then, under the circumstances that small non-agriculture has already been off the charts, there will be non-agriculture tomorrow, and the market has already started to price the Fed to raise interest rates ahead of time, or even shrink the table ahead of time, is the cross-year market (pictured above) that we counted before aborted?
Not necessarily. The answer, wait for the open class tomorrow night to solve your doubts.
$黄金主连 2202(GCmain)$ $WTI原油主连 2202(CLmain)$ $A50指数主连 2201(CNmain)$ $恒生科技指数主连 2201(HTImain)$ $恒生指数主连 2201(HSImain)$ $NQ100指数主连 2203(NQmain)$
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