Kou Jian, special commentator of Zhishang Institute
Starting from Black Friday after Thanksgiving on November 25th, the market took the newly discovered Novel Coronavirus variant Omicron as the trumpeter of public opinion, which suppressed the crude oil price by 10 dollars, creating the biggest decline in the seventh day in the history of US crude oil (CL).
Four days later, the market was prompted by the OPEC meeting's decision to increase production by 400,000 barrels a day, and American Oil set a recent record low of $62.47. In this way, US crude oil completed the perfect technical retracement from the recent historical high of US $85 to US $62 on December 1 (please see the following picture). After that, the market repeatedly competed between $72 and $62 for nearly a month, and now US crude oil has re-entered the upward track.
The serious lack of liquidity in the crude oil derivatives market on Black Friday exaggerated the movement of crude oil prices, but the price changes on this day provided us with an opportunity and a very important technical chart support for us to predict the trend of the crude oil market in 2022.
It is a high probability event that the US crude oil market breaks through $85
Personally, American Oil (CL) will continue to challenge the recent record of $85 set in October this year in 2022. But before that, the market may continue to adjust downward according to the epidemic situation, the relationship between supply and demand and geopolitics, and then make a new upward attempt after finding a strong support point around US $68.
Now it turns out that the symptoms of Omicron Novel Coronavirus variant are not much different from those of influenza, and the threat to human beings is far less than that of various variants in the past. The objective facts in the spot market and the optimistic attitude towards the global economy in 2022 have brought US crude oil back into the upward track.
Based on the continuous recovery of the world economy from the Novel Coronavirus epidemic, under the macro conditions of global inflation, it will be a high probability event that the US crude oil (CL) market will break through the historical high of US $85 in 2021 in 2022. My personal opinion is that the US crude oil market is likely to find a new upward resistance point between US $88 and US $92 in 2022.
The initiator of all this is OPEC, because OPEC did not completely return the supply shortage of 7 million barrels a day in the early stage of Novel Coronavirus outbreak (early spring of 2020) to the world consumer market. The shortage in the spot market will continue to provide a strong trading basis for bulls in the market.
Shortage of spot market provides trading opportunities for crude oil derivatives market
At present, there are many trading opportunities in the crude oil derivatives market, such as calendar spread of buying crude oil futures, wide-span arbitrage of put options and so on.
$NQ100指数主连 2203(NQmain)$ $WTI原油主连 2202(CLmain)$ $黄金主连 2202(GCmain)$ $A50指数主连 2112(CNmain)$
Comments