Stock Market Outlook - Mar/Apr 2022

Goodgolddays
2022-03-26

Stock market was generally down for almost the entire Q1 2022. With the recent rally, is it the start of a real bull run or is it a dead cat bounce? Here are my views on the current stock market outlook as I tried to present both bull and bear cases objectively, and hopefully they can value add to your own research. However,please note they are not financial advices. 

Bull case:

- Growth stocks have been hammered down, and are much cheaper in valuation

- Covid situation is better around the world

- Fed's latest interest rate hike is per expectatio

- When sellers dry up, the market will rebound

- Various mega cap stocks are showing bullish trend e.g. Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple and Tesla (can check out the video for simple TA)

Bear case

- Outcome of ongoing war is uncertain

- Supply chain issues

- Inflation

- Aggresive rate hikes

- Shrinking balance sheet

- S&P500 and a few mega cap stocks’ movement have been defying odds. Some of them went up in a parabolic manner, and it usually ends with a pullback

If you have some time to spare, hope you can check out this video that I have done up:

Stock Market Outlook - Mar/Apr 2022

https://youtu.be/Jg1SQCJrOfk


$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

$Apple(AAPL)$

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

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Comments

  • nimbly
    2022-03-27
    nimbly
    Thanks for your nice analysis.
  • Alfe
    2022-03-26
    Alfe
    I saw an article about gamma squeeze, I think it might be the case. I currently mostly trade TSLA and if you look at the C/P %, more people are buying put now.
    Signalling a pull back now I think
    • AlfeReplyGoodgolddays: 
      Good to have someone with the same sentimental. Recently loss quite a lot, hope to recover back some costs. Haha. Hope I am right. I stop loss at peak of shooting star
    • Goodgolddays: 
      I concur!
  • Humbly
    2022-03-27
    Humbly
    Markets will likely remain volatile given the Russian Ukrainian war and Fed rate hikes. Selling covered calls and puts could be a viable strategy when option premiums are high
    • Goodgolddays: 
      Agree. IV should be quite high during this period
  • snappyz
    2022-03-26
    snappyz
    I do not think the rebounce will continue. It is just temporary.
    • Goodgolddays: 
      Im also of the view that the market will pull bsck
  • hd87
    2022-03-28
    hd87
    Thanks for sharing. Hope someone can help me like this comment ')
  • MultiBaggers
    2022-03-27
    MultiBaggers
    There would likely be a Yield Curve Inversion which could spark off a massive bull run rally in the months to come
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