Introduction: Shopify's Stock Is In Free-Fall After Q4 2021 Results
Last month, Shopify $Shopify(SHOP)$ reported strong results for Q4 2021; however, its stock is plunging as if the company is about to go bankrupt within days. Over the last few months, we have seen massive price drops in small-cap growth stocks; however, a proven tech-titan like Shopify losing roughly two-thirds ($150B) of its market capitalization within a few months (four to be exact) is unreal.
I have pointed out multiple times in recent weeks, this market has lost sanity. With that being said, Shopify's price action shouldn't baffle anybody. We have researched Shopify extensively over the past couple of years, and every time our conclusion has been that - "Shopify is a great business, and we want to own it, but it's too expensive".
Now that Shopify's stock has come in a lot, is it an opportunity to buy into this amazing growth story?
In today's note, we shall study Shopify's latest quarterly report to gauge the health of its business. Later on, we will identify the factors behind Shopify's rapid decline. Lastly, we will re-evaluate Shopify's fair value and expected returns to make an informed investment decision.
Analyzing Shopify's Q4 Results
In 2021, Shopify's GMV came in at $175B, up 47% y/y despite tough comps. The secular tailwinds for entrepreneurship and e-commerce are not fading away in the post-pandemic world; however, Shopify's spectacular growth rates are normalizing. In Q4 2021, Shopify's GMV grew at ~31% to reach $54B.
Shopify Q4 Earnings Presentation
Shopify Market share
Shopify Q4 Earnings Presentation
As of 2021, more than ten percent of all US retail e-commerce was conducted through Shopify's platform, which means it is the second-largest e-commerce player behind Amaz
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