The recent rebound in U.S. stocks has made many people stunned. Even if I am a trend, I can’t understand such a violent rebound, and I don’t want to talk about a reversal, because I know that the U.S. stock market has only just reached the 20-week line. To talk about the reversal, I think we have to wait and see.
Recently, the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has continued to soar, almost in the form of a major uptrend, and the yield of two-year Treasury bonds has risen even more. Both patterns are major uptrends.
For the yield of government bonds and the price of government bonds, the relationship between the two is negatively correlated. As the price of government bonds falls, the yield of government bonds will continue to rise. On the contrary, if the price of government bonds continues to rise, the yield of government bonds will decline.
The following is my personal opinion, not necessarily correct,
At the same time, on the other hand, it can be seen that the US dollar index is constantly strengthening, and it is close to 100. In fact, all signs are showing that a large amount of funds are continuously flowing back to the US dollar. Some people are selling equity assets in emerging markets, some people are selling government bonds, and the weight of US equity is constantly increasing. There is a positive feedback effect between them. The continuous selling of treasury bonds has led to rising yields, and the prices of treasury bonds have fallen further. The heavyweight stocks in the stock market have continued to rise, attracting more funds to sell treasury bonds, including overseas U.S. dollar funds continue to flow back. Moreover, the interest rate hike is obviously more beneficial to the US dollar assets than the emerging Huobi market.
Moreover, the stocks that have risen in this round are all very core large-scale technology stocks, such as typical Apple, which is definitely a continuous inflow of low-risk funds, such as funds that previously held bonds, which are typical low-risk appetites funds. From the perspective of the game, as the core assets of U.S. stocks continue to rise, the prices of 10-year government bonds, etc. have continued to fall. Beware of some funds starting to sell U.S. stocks and return to the bond market. After all, for a stable fund, a 10% return in a month is also very good. For example, Apple has increased by nearly 15% in the last half month. Tesla and Nvidia have nothing to say.
The rebound to the current position may come to an end, or it may continue to rise, because the last time the Nasdaq took this form was during the epidemic in 2020. At that time, it broke through the 20-week line and continued to rise, and I haven’t entered yet. US stocks.
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