NVR - a good investment in a high inflation environment

i4value
2022-05-15

$NVR Inc(NVR)$ is a value investing opportunity among the US Homebuilders.

In a high inflation environment, companies have to worry not only about higher costs. They also have to contend with the economic impact of the various measures taken to control inflation.

So you need a history of product prices increasing at a higher rate than inflation. You also need a history of costs increasing at a lower rate than product prices. The company also has to be financially strong to outlast the lower economic growth period.

The US homebuilding sector has these features. Homebuilders that will do well are those with a strong management team and good business economics. This will be reflected by a track record of strong returns, shareholders' value creation, and strong financials.

NVR fits this profile. It if financially strong. It is also one of the better performing Homebuilders as can be seen from the peer comparison.

US Homebuilders Performance: Note; Gross Profitability = Gross Profit/Total Assets

NVR is trading as USD 4,234 per share (as of 13 May 2022) compared its intrinsic value of USD 5,454 per share. This intrinsic value was obtained based on a single-stage Free Cash Flow to the firm model with the following assumptions.

Table 1: Assumptions used 

If you want to dig deeper for the supporting details or look at other value investing opportunities, visit my blog i4value.asia.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • JC888
    2022-05-15
    JC888
    I dunno knw but historically for us mkt in the face of escalating inflation does interest in property heat up? If can show proof then investing may be correct. Yes?
    • Steventeo
      gogogo
    • JC888Replyi4value
      For this type of long term investment how attractive is the rate of returns? Never thought abt it before... Piqued interest to knw. Tks
    • i4value
      I am a long term value investors - think in terms of holding for 6 to 8 years. So I value NVR based on the average performance over the cycle and not current one
    • i4valueReplyJC888
      look at the difference between the current price and the intrinsic value. Assumed that it would take 8 years to hit this price level. You can then work out the CAGR.
  • FranklinMorley
    2022-05-15
    FranklinMorley
    Sell the homebuilders before its too late. Downgrades coming. I'm warning everyone.😟😟😟
    • i4value
       I am a bottom-up stock picking value investor and I look at individual companies. From a value investing perspectives, there will be opportunities when the market is selling
  • MatthewWalter
    2022-05-15
    MatthewWalter
    Great day, looking for this big sell off to cool down now. Even with interest rates up. The housing market will continue to BOOM…
  • KittyBruno
    2022-05-15
    KittyBruno
    But seriously , why are you so positive about this stock when it seems to be following Dow Theory. Lower highs and lower lows.
  • sugizoi4u
    2022-05-15
    sugizoi4u
    Thanks for sharing
  • Klim8898
    2022-05-16
    Klim8898
    ok
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