Grab: An objective look at the way ahead

Jo Tan
2022-05-19

I'm writing this before the earning report later in 2.5 hours. 

Given$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$'s initial outlook of:

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1. Deliveries GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) to be between $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion

2. Mobility GMV to be between $0.75 billion to $0.80 billion

3. Financial Services Pre-InterCo TPV to be between $3.1 billion to $3.2 billion

Grab further expects GMV growth for each of the quarters from Q2 to Q4 2022 to accelerate to 30 – 35% YoY, subject to shifts in the COVID-19 environment.

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I am more objective now in my outlook towards Grab and am ready to drop the stock if the objectives are not met. If the objectives are met, I will continue to accumulate the stock monthly at 10- 30 lots per month (sorry if this sounds meager but this is part of my risk mitigation measure).

I intend to increase when it breaks even and starts showing profit. 

This will happen beyond 2022 when:

Grab progresses towards core food delivery Segment Adjusted EBITDA breakeven by the first half of 2023 and deliveries Segment Adjusted EBITDA breakeven by the end of 2023. In the long term, Grab is targeting steady state Adjusted EBITDA to GMV margins of 12% in mobility and 3% in deliveries (according to Grab's performance report for 2021).

Using the Company's KPI, I will manage my holdings accordingly. With my small accumulation, this should be feasible in the long term. What are your thoughts?



@TigerStars@CaptainTiger

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Comments

  • Jackyong84
    2022-05-21
    Jackyong84
    Good insight. Thanks for sharing.
  • HH浩
    2022-05-21
    HH浩
    I am still having doubt over its biz model. I wont use grab to order foods if there is no discount voucher. Maybe it is just me.
  • CY Tan
    2022-05-21
    CY Tan
    The profitability need to continue to improve over the next few quarters to see the share price improves.
    • mster
      With Singapore and it’s neighboring countries are opening up, ride hailings will improve but food deliveries may reduced. It will still be a challenging environment for a while.
  • Ra007
    2022-05-20
    Ra007
    Bottomed out[Thinking] I doubt it till another quarter
  • EugeneH
    2022-05-21
    EugeneH
    help to like thx
  • marcothen
    2022-05-20
    marcothen
    Grab grab grab [Cool]
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