DeliriousNic
2022-03-01

$Sea Ltd(SE)$‌Good earnings but what makes the stock drop so much is the poor guidance for FY2022. Based on their estimation, their digital entertainment is expected to drop more than 30% due to some headwind factors such as Free Fire ban from India. 


Due to this, they are only expecting a minimum 29.6% increase in YoY revenue growth despite stating that Shopee would grow more than 75% and SeaMoney to grow more than 150% for 2022, this is very poor compared to their last few years.


Some positive news:


Shopee is expected to be adjusted EBIDTA positive by the end of this year, Sea limited is expected to be fully profitable by latest 2025. Cutting off Shopee from France is actually good news, it shows that they are not afraid of cutting loss from bad investments, I would rather they focus on markets that have more opportunity to grow such as South America and Taiwan.


Some bad news:


Free Fire is losing steam as time goes by, they either have to develop a new mobile game or pray that India reverse its ban on Free Fire. But in the long run, Sea Limited will be less dependent on Garena as Shopee and SeaMoney continues to grow at an insane rate.


TLDR: Great opportunity to average down, but be prepared to hold this for more than 2 years.

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Comments

  • riffy
    2022-03-03
    riffy
    Friends in India can not play Free Fire. Just hope India will reverse its sanction on Free Fire.
  • dimpy
    2022-03-03
    dimpy
    The sanction to SEA is unfair. It is a Singapore company.
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