$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$Lucid Real Problem and Risk
Risk
1. Saudi Arabia is drifting away from American sphere of influence and things looks like it's only going worst from here. Saudi and UAE not picking up calls from Biden to pump more oil to lower oil prices. Instead Biden has to turn to Venezuela to negotiate for more oil. This shift in polices and strategy put high risk on Lucid production plant in Saudi Arabia.
2. China if chooses to go against sanction of Russia and does trade with Russia will face Biden and NATO punitive sanctions as well. The chance if 50/50 a yes or no from China. Lots of semiconductor companies in top S&P will be affected as a high percentage are produced in China and will impact tech and EVs. Lucid will face production delay.
3. Prolong of conflict in the War, inflation, interests rate increasing, looming recession ahead, current supply chain shortages (chips) and so much other uncertainties which are real such as COVID-19 mutations, china is contemplating with Russia on a common currency (yuan) moving away from US dollar. Etc and more. Lucid will face prolong suffering and may not raise sufficient capital for the long run before it's reserve runs dry.
4. The ultimate challenge as a company. Lucid faces mammoth task just like Tesla in securing parts in supply chain, ramp up it's production, securing capital in an unpredictable world and circumstances. I don't bet fully of Saudi crown prince backings lucid is peanuts to him when it comes to national security and foreign policies shift. Relationship can turn south in Saudi quite easily with America which is already on going.
5. In 2022 other than the breaking news of signing to build production plant in Saudi, there is really not much positive catalysts for Lucid. It's projected numbers of vehicles have gone significantly lower almost half. But in true reality there is a good high chance it will not even able to meet those projected figures.
6. Lucid is desperately trying to come up with other products in hope to divert the attentions away from it's looming problems. And to raise hopes and positivity but perhaps to no Vail.
7. The bears are always persistently on the tails of lucid waiting to pound on every opportunity. Making it's stock value harder than what it is already.
8. Lucid has to be invest with very high cautionary but to avoid for now if your long term investors. Even brilliant investors like Warren Buffett etc do not get on lucid. Institutions are the major bears. If your in for short gains good luck. Lucid is still a mile away from what Tesla is today and there is a very good fair chance it might fail and face bankruptcy ahead of it's path in a world where there no light at the end of the tunnel. At least yet.
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