moonradiance
2022-03-11

$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$Lucid Real Problem and Risk

Risk

1. Saudi Arabia is drifting away from American sphere of influence and things looks like it's only going worst from here. Saudi and UAE not picking up calls from Biden to pump more oil to lower oil prices. Instead Biden has to turn to Venezuela to negotiate for more oil. This shift in polices and strategy put high risk on Lucid production plant in Saudi Arabia.

2. China if chooses to go against sanction of Russia and does trade with Russia will face Biden and NATO punitive sanctions as well. The chance if 50/50 a yes or no from China. Lots of semiconductor companies in top S&P will be affected as a high percentage are produced in China and will impact tech and EVs. Lucid will face production delay.

3. Prolong of conflict in the War, inflation, interests rate increasing, looming recession ahead, current supply chain shortages (chips) and so much other uncertainties which are real such as COVID-19 mutations, china is contemplating with Russia on a common currency (yuan) moving away from US dollar. Etc and more. Lucid will face prolong suffering and may not raise sufficient capital for the long run before it's reserve runs dry.

4. The ultimate challenge as a company. Lucid faces mammoth task just like Tesla in securing parts in supply chain, ramp up it's production, securing capital in an unpredictable world and circumstances. I don't bet fully of Saudi crown prince backings lucid is peanuts to him when it comes to national security and foreign policies shift. Relationship can turn south in Saudi quite easily with America which is already on going.

5. In 2022 other than the breaking news of signing to build production plant in Saudi, there is really not much positive catalysts for Lucid. It's projected numbers of vehicles have gone significantly lower almost half. But in true reality there is a good high chance it will not even able to meet those projected figures.

6. Lucid is desperately trying to come up with other products in hope to divert the attentions away from it's looming problems. And to raise hopes and positivity but perhaps to no Vail. 

7. The bears are always persistently on the tails of lucid waiting to pound on every opportunity. Making it's stock value harder than what it is already.

8. Lucid has to be invest with very high cautionary but to avoid for now if your long term investors. Even brilliant investors like Warren Buffett etc do not get on lucid. Institutions are the major bears. If your in for short gains good luck. Lucid is still a mile away from what Tesla is today and there is a very good fair chance it might fail and face bankruptcy ahead of it's path in a world where there no light at the end of the tunnel. At least yet.







Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • BaronLyly
    2022-03-11
    BaronLyly
    loaded up at $17 months ago, looking for a similar entry. I think the markets short term will continue to take a beating, but long term this stock will make millionaires
    • ChuanrenReplymoonradiance: 
      be patient, I believe we're almost there!
    • moonradianceReplyCrystalRose: 
      it's good that you believe in lucid and investing for the long term and hope to become a millionaire. But the risk at the moment is too real to ignore. there is no real way of going about it.
    • CrystalRose: 
      I will only hold and add on dips completely comfortable in this stock this forum sucks though bunch of Todd’s from other forums trying to pump jeez
  • EmilyMark
    2022-03-11
    EmilyMark
    RIVN，LCID，NIO and every other EV stock that was pumped the last two years and promised to be the next TSLA is getting slaughtered.
    • moonradiance: 
      they are too over valued to start off with during the EVs hype. in troubled times like this, they are just being trimmed down to size lol. The stock market is a bear's world. bull is a deception.
    • KittyBruno: 
      RIVN LCID catching tesla is near impossible. your company got to almost bankrupt like 3x then wait like 5-10 years.
    • CyrilDavy: 
      Indeed！Tesla is truly in a league of its own. Competition is literally 5+ years away at best, probably a decade or more
  • FranklinMorley
    2022-03-11
    FranklinMorley
    there are zero catalysts for these stocks to go up. There are catalysts every earnings report for them to go down on further proof they will need to dilute shareholders to stay afloat.
    • moonradianceReplyMatthewWalter: 
      there are many good profitable value stocks out there that are under valued.
    • MatthewWalter: 
      what possible positive catalysts exist, that would actually drive share buying?
    • moonradianceReplyMatthewWalter: 
      in all honestly it all depends on what the big institutions thinks? it's not what you and me or other individuals think. the institution (bears) control the values.
  • MyrnaNorth
    2022-03-11
    MyrnaNorth
    Still holding that fair value for this stock is $20 and we continually inch closer.
    • moonradiance: 
      they really holding up despite negative signs everywhere. it's going to give way to get lower soon.
  • CndzRed
    2022-03-14
    CndzRed
    i‘m being patient and hopeful and holding on to my lucid [Sweats][Smile]
    • moonradiance: 
      and if you happen to buy at the high previously and incur losses at this moment, either you buy and sell or simply just hold because you have no other way out in this case.
    • moonradiance: 
      sell and buy lower. better than just hold.

      but if you're not confident and prefer not to take that measure it's better to just hold.

    • moonradiance: 
      so mathematically it's more logical to maximize your investment if you can buy more with the same amount you have which is sell and buy more at lower with the same capital
    • moonradiance: 
      please do not take my word for it. The decision is yours to make. The market will go lower in my opinion but lucid investors may hold strong to a certain point. so invest wisely and safely.
    • moonradiance: 
      in addition, if you're planning to buy, be cautious that the stock may very likely go lower over the next few months before you see any upward trend. situation will likely head south for the worst.
  • littlesweetie
    2022-03-11
    littlesweetie
    RIVN and LCID still have big promise in the long run， but what both want to achieve is what Polestar has ALREADY achieved
    • moonradiance: 
      I do hope Lucid succeed as well its definitely tempting to get in. but the risk is so much that I'm not ready to enter at the moment.
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