I'll freely admit that, a little over a year ago, I had $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ in the same camp as Nikola -- i.e., Avoid! Avoid! Avoid! At one point, Nio's valuation topped $90 billion with the company pacing for only around 20,000 EVs in production annually. Its valuation just didn't make any sense.
However, management has really impressed with its ability to boost production in a challenging environment. Though the Chinese New Year held back production in February, and supply chain issues curbed output in January, Nio managed to top 10,000 deliveries in both November and December. Management has offered guidance suggesting that the company can hit 50,000 deliveries monthly by the end of the year. This would work out to an annual run-rate of around 600,000 EVs.
Fueling this production surge is Nio's existing line of EVs, as well as the introduction of three new vehicles. Until now, the company's premium SUVs (the ES8 and ES6) and crossover EV (the ES6) have received plenty of interest. But the next wave of growth will come from the deliveries of the ET7 and ET5, which are EV sedans that take direct aim at$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 's Model S and Model 3, respectively. With the top-tier battery option, Nio claims an estimated range of approximately 621 miles for its sedans.
Furthermore, the battery-as-a-service (BaaS) program that was unveiled in August 2020 by management is pure genius. For buyers, BaaS lowers the initial purchase price of their vehicle and gives them the option to charge, swap, or upgrade their batteries at a later date. For Nio, it trades lower-margin near-term sales for high-margin fee-based revenue (buyers pay a monthly fee for the BaaS program) that keeps buyers loyal to the brand.
And did I mention Nio is based in China, the world's largest auto market? The EV industry is still nascent in China,meaning market share is up for grabs.
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