Uncertain times for retail inv

2022-03-10

Uncertain times for retail investors. Hard to know when the market has bottomed out.

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Comments

EvelynHoover
2022-03-10
EvelynHoover
I believe no one can accurately predict the lowest point of the market.
- EvelynHooverReply19fbece9:
  you bet. The current price is already very low.
- 19fbece9:
  Agree but for longer term investors, this window could present some opportunities to enter at reasonable valuation. Most indices are now back to 1 year ago level.
DaisyMoore
2022-03-10
DaisyMoore
Therefore, in the face of this great uncertainty, people will invest according to their risk tolerance.
MamieBenson
2022-03-10
MamieBenson
I don't know either. But I think the current market volatility is not over. I'm not willing to buy it at the moment.
William85
2022-03-11
William85
Totally agree with you. It looks like the stock market is falling into a bottomless pit.
gky
2022-03-10
gky
ok
vincentheng8
2022-03-10
vincentheng8
all in!

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Hard to know when the market has bottomed out.</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Uncertain times for retail investors. Hard to know when the market has bottomed out.</p></body></html>","text":"Uncertain times for retail investors. Hard to know when the market has bottomed out.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038744702","repostId":2218123147,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2218123147","pubTimestamp":1646921140,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2218123147?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-10 22:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple's Stock Faces A Steep Sell-Off","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2218123147","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"This story was originally written on March 7 for subscribers of Reading The Markets, an SA Marketpla","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><i>This story was originally written on March 7 for subscribers of Reading The Markets, an SA Marketplace service. This story has been updated as of March 9.</i></p><p>Apple (AAPL) shares have come under pressure in recent weeks, along with the broader equity markets, as the war in Ukraine escalates, sending oil and the dollar surging. That, coupled with the potential for several Fed rate hikes as inflation spirals out of control, is resulting in valuation and multiple compression. Apple is not immune to these macro forces.</p><p>Even the latest Apple event on March 8, with the unveiling of a new iPhone SE, iPad Air, and new Mac Studio, will be enough to change the course of Apple over the near term. The issue with Apple is not the fundamentals of the business. The problem with Apple is that the stock&#39;s valuation is high on a historical basis. Right now, investors are re-pricing risk, leading to board multiple compression across the entire market.</p><h2>AAPL&#39;s Valuation Is Still High</h2><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f3bc82f1f7ce23f94e0a25183e9e7b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Apple&#39;s stock is certainly not cheap, trading at 24.7 it 1-yr Fwd EPS estimates, which doesn&#39;t sound high compared to other stocks in the S&amp;P 500. But it&#39;s very high for Apple on a historical basis. Since 2014, Apple has had an average PE ratio of 16.7. Now it&#39;s reasonable to assume some added multiple expansion over the years due to the company&#39;s addition of its services business. However, despite its decline, the current PE ratio is still more than <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> standard deviation above the historical average.</p><p>It probably signals a lot more multiple compression to go for Apple&#39;s stock, should the general trend in the broader market continue to hold. That multiple could fall dramatically, potentially to 20 or lower.</p><p>If Apple is forecast to earn around $6.69 per share in 2023 and sees its PE ratio fall to about 20 times earnings, the stock would only be valued at approximately $134. That would be a considerable drop from its current price of roughly $162 on March 9, a decline of about 17.4%.</p><p>The valuation may especially matter given that company is only expected to see earnings grow 9.6% in the fiscal year 2022 and 6.8% in the fiscal year 2023, which doesn&#39;t justify the historically high valuation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf1a8ddea8fbe028617f8f659fd46cae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><h2>Betting Shares Drops</h2><p>This type of thinking could have led someone to make a massive bet that Apple&#39;s stock will see lower prices soon. On March 7, the April 14 $150 puts saw their open interest rise by an eye-popping 45,000 contracts. The data shows the contracts were bought on the ASK at various prices during the trading session on March 4 for around $3. That would imply that the stock would need to fall below $147 for the trader to profit if holding the contracts until the expiration date.</p><h2>Trends Breaking Down</h2><p>The technical chart does not look strong and shows that prices have been declining and approaching a critical long-term uptrend that started in May. The technical pattern itself is a rising broadening wedge, which tends to be a bearish pattern. A break of that uptrend would result in the stock falling to around $149, the next level of crucial support for the equity. Additionally, the relative strength index is trending lower, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4bb2f209fcb045281afe14f2543d6c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tradingview</p><p>The decline in Apple shares may have nothing to do with the fundamentals of the business, which seem pretty strong right now, especially in the face of the strong product line-up. The company has recently started rolling out its chip designs into its Mac and iPad line-ups. Plus, the recent event showed the addition of a new Mac.</p><p>None of this is to say that Apple doesn&#39;t have a strong path forward in the future. It does. At this point, the macro backdrop has shifted, resulting in changes in the stock&#39;s valuation.</p><p>It&#39;s more likely that Apple will fall victim to changing market dynamics that favor further multiple compression, not due to the strength and positioning of the company.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple's Stock Faces A Steep Sell-Off</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple's Stock Faces A Steep Sell-Off\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-10 22:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4494129-apples-stock-faces-a-steep-sell-off><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>This story was originally written on March 7 for subscribers of Reading The Markets, an SA Marketplace service. This story has been updated as of March 9.Apple (AAPL) shares have come under pressure ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4494129-apples-stock-faces-a-steep-sell-off\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4512":"苹果概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4494129-apples-stock-faces-a-steep-sell-off","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2218123147","content_text":"This story was originally written on March 7 for subscribers of Reading The Markets, an SA Marketplace service. This story has been updated as of March 9.Apple (AAPL) shares have come under pressure in recent weeks, along with the broader equity markets, as the war in Ukraine escalates, sending oil and the dollar surging. That, coupled with the potential for several Fed rate hikes as inflation spirals out of control, is resulting in valuation and multiple compression. Apple is not immune to these macro forces.Even the latest Apple event on March 8, with the unveiling of a new iPhone SE, iPad Air, and new Mac Studio, will be enough to change the course of Apple over the near term. The issue with Apple is not the fundamentals of the business. The problem with Apple is that the stock's valuation is high on a historical basis. Right now, investors are re-pricing risk, leading to board multiple compression across the entire market.AAPL's Valuation Is Still HighBloombergApple's stock is certainly not cheap, trading at 24.7 it 1-yr Fwd EPS estimates, which doesn't sound high compared to other stocks in the S&P 500. But it's very high for Apple on a historical basis. Since 2014, Apple has had an average PE ratio of 16.7. Now it's reasonable to assume some added multiple expansion over the years due to the company's addition of its services business. However, despite its decline, the current PE ratio is still more than one standard deviation above the historical average.It probably signals a lot more multiple compression to go for Apple's stock, should the general trend in the broader market continue to hold. That multiple could fall dramatically, potentially to 20 or lower.If Apple is forecast to earn around $6.69 per share in 2023 and sees its PE ratio fall to about 20 times earnings, the stock would only be valued at approximately $134. That would be a considerable drop from its current price of roughly $162 on March 9, a decline of about 17.4%.The valuation may especially matter given that company is only expected to see earnings grow 9.6% in the fiscal year 2022 and 6.8% in the fiscal year 2023, which doesn't justify the historically high valuation.BloombergBetting Shares DropsThis type of thinking could have led someone to make a massive bet that Apple's stock will see lower prices soon. On March 7, the April 14 $150 puts saw their open interest rise by an eye-popping 45,000 contracts. The data shows the contracts were bought on the ASK at various prices during the trading session on March 4 for around $3. That would imply that the stock would need to fall below $147 for the trader to profit if holding the contracts until the expiration date.Trends Breaking DownThe technical chart does not look strong and shows that prices have been declining and approaching a critical long-term uptrend that started in May. The technical pattern itself is a rising broadening wedge, which tends to be a bearish pattern. A break of that uptrend would result in the stock falling to around $149, the next level of crucial support for the equity. Additionally, the relative strength index is trending lower, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum.TradingviewThe decline in Apple shares may have nothing to do with the fundamentals of the business, which seem pretty strong right now, especially in the face of the strong product line-up. The company has recently started rolling out its chip designs into its Mac and iPad line-ups. Plus, the recent event showed the addition of a new Mac.None of this is to say that Apple doesn't have a strong path forward in the future. It does. At this point, the macro backdrop has shifted, resulting in changes in the stock's valuation.It's more likely that Apple will fall victim to changing market dynamics that favor further multiple compression, not due to the strength and positioning of the company.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":71,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":100784216,"gmtCreate":1646927443283,"gmtModify":1663244932841,"authorId":9000000000000591,"author":{"id":9000000000000591,"authorId":9000000000000591,"name":"EvelynHoover","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9038744702,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"I believe no one can accurately predict the lowest point of the market.","text":"I believe no one can accurately predict the lowest point of the market.","html":"I believe no one can accurately predict the lowest point of the market.","likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"subComments":[{"id":100795492,"gmtCreate":1647013778758,"gmtModify":1663244981634,"authorId":9000000000000591,"author":{"id":9000000000000591,"authorId":9000000000000591,"name":"EvelynHoover","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":4108253135098430,"repliedAuthor":{"id":4108253135098430,"authorId":4108253135098430,"name":"19fbece9","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.02.25","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":9038744702,"type":1,"supId":100784216,"prevId":100785169,"content":"you bet. The current price is already very low.","text":"you bet. The current price is already very low.","html":"you bet. The current price is already very low."},{"id":100785169,"gmtCreate":1646949468852,"gmtModify":1663244936548,"authorId":4108253135098430,"author":{"id":4108253135098430,"authorId":4108253135098430,"name":"19fbece9","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.02.25","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9038744702,"type":1,"supId":100784216,"prevId":0,"content":"Agree but for longer term investors, this window could present some opportunities to enter at reasonable valuation. <u>M</u>ost indices are now back to 1 year ago level.","text":"Agree but for longer term investors, this window could present some opportunities to enter at reasonable valuation. <u>M</u>ost indices are now back to 1 year ago level.","html":"Agree but for longer term investors, this window could present some opportunities to enter at reasonable valuation. <u>M</u>ost indices are now back to 1 year ago level."}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":100784058,"gmtCreate":1646926408762,"gmtModify":1663244932849,"authorId":9000000000000640,"author":{"id":9000000000000640,"authorId":9000000000000640,"name":"DaisyMoore","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b6d4586dc3002807c92bc57e1b3a6bd","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9038744702,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Therefore, in the face of this great uncertainty, people will invest according to their risk tolerance.","text":"Therefore, in the face of this great uncertainty, people will invest according to their risk tolerance.","html":"Therefore, in the face of this great uncertainty, people will invest according to their risk tolerance.","likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":100784153,"gmtCreate":1646926979317,"gmtModify":1663244929947,"authorId":9000000000000494,"author":{"id":9000000000000494,"authorId":9000000000000494,"name":"MamieBenson","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9038744702,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"I don't know either. But I think the current market volatility is not over. I'm not willing to buy it at the moment.","text":"I don't know either. But I think the current market volatility is not over. I'm not willing to buy it at the moment.","html":"I don't know either. But I think the current market volatility is not over. I'm not willing to buy it at the moment.","likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":100793240,"gmtCreate":1647000836183,"gmtModify":1663244974838,"authorId":3527667612229510,"author":{"id":3527667612229510,"authorId":3527667612229510,"name":"William85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9038744702,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Totally agree with you. It looks like the stock market is falling into a bottomless pit.","text":"Totally agree with you. It looks like the stock market is falling into a bottomless pit.","html":"Totally agree with you. It looks like the stock market is falling into a bottomless pit.","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":100783796,"gmtCreate":1646925181173,"gmtModify":1663244929950,"authorId":3586473514667147,"author":{"id":3586473514667147,"authorId":3586473514667147,"name":"gky","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9038744702,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>ok</u>","text":"<u>ok</u>","html":"<u>ok</u>","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":100783806,"gmtCreate":1646925242458,"gmtModify":1663244929836,"authorId":3577147024133490,"author":{"id":3577147024133490,"authorId":3577147024133490,"name":"vincentheng8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177fda2264ab2bd83ccfc55eb70c57a4","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9038744702,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"all in!","text":"all in!","html":"all in!","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/9038744702"}