Why is Buffett buying back?

BenjiFuji
2022-06-19

Chanced upon an article to state that "Grandfather of Value Investing" Warren Buffett is backing back his own stock. In fact for the past 6weeks, he has bought back $1.3 Billion of his own stock. Why so?

Stock is undervalued based on 10X EBT

Based on an historical article in Seeking Alpha, Buffet buys back when the stock is only undervalued and one way of assessing it is using 10X pretax earnings (EBT). Based on the author's estimation in 2021, the IV of $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ is at $194. However BRK.B is now at $268.08. So why the buy back? 

I did some snooping with Tiger values using the 10X EBT + Cash and my IV was $192.67. Using the numbers in GF, using EPS instead of EBT, I got $436. If I used the GF number and divided it with 1500 to convert BRKA to BRKB, the GF value was $297.

Stock is undervalued based on PB

Another hypothesis that I came across is that Buffett is buying back based on the rule: if thevalue of BRKA or BRK B drops below 1.2PB, he will buy back. Based on Tiger's valuation of $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$, the PB is now1.16.

Stock is undervalued based on PE

The final thesis that I came across is that Buffett buys back when the stock is below PE of 12-15 for Berkshire. The current PE is at 7.24 so you know what that means.

Important note

I do not know for sure which method Buffett uses. And also, do note that valuation comes inonly after you have done your due diligence With the industry, management, competition etcetc. Valuation is not an exact science either. One person might like Vincent V Gogh while another might abhor it.

Key point for me is that buybacks needs to be rationalised and bought when the stock is undervalued. Only then can it be shareholder accretive.

As for me, am glad that I fired my initial gunpowder the same time zone that Buffett did. Could we be wrong? Possibly. But I am bullish on $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$and I know the culture of value investing being built is not going away anytime soon.

What do you think? What's your intrinsic valuecalculation of BRK.B? I like to learn from you.

@MillionaireTiger@CaptainTiger@TigerStars

Also, I like to wish all Dad's a happy Father's Day! 

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • Kabanotolog
    2022-06-20
    Kabanotolog
    нечего покупать потому что
    • BenjiFuji
      Dont know your situation. All the best
  • flinostone
    2022-06-19
    flinostone
    goodread
  • 吉慶
    2022-06-21
    吉慶
    On what kind of circumstances , there is necessary for a buy back stock?
    • 吉慶ReplyBenjiFuji
      Thanks for sharing. Still learning.
    • BenjiFujiReply吉慶
      No better opportunity meaning things are still expensive out there. E.g. Would you buy one Durian for $500?
    • BenjiFujiReply吉慶
      You are welcome [Great] Keep on learning and enjoy the journey.
    • 吉慶ReplyBenjiFuji
      No better opportunity = stock price up/down??
    • BenjiFuji
      When the company is under valued and there is no better opportunity in the market, a back back makes perfect sense.
  • Maria_yy
    2022-06-20
    Maria_yy
    Your post is very inspiring to me. Thanks for sharing
    • BenjiFuji
      You are welcome, all the best [Grin]
  • hh488
    2022-06-20
    hh488
    Or maybe they still have excess cash to deploy?
    • BenjiFuji
      Berkshire is a cash generating monster. However Buffett can sit on his butt and still do nothing. [LOL]
  • Andy91
    2022-06-20
    Andy91
    Nice article. Thanks
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