Failed to Fill the Gap, 30-DMA High Pressures, Any Miracles?

TechnicalHunter
2022-06-29

What happened on Tuesday's trading?

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ -2.01%, $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ -2.98%; $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2205(10Ymain)$ -3 bps to 3.17%;  USD rallied globally, DXY near 104.5; Brent oil+2.5% to $117.98/bbl; U.S. consumer confidence & Richmond FED Mfg Ind disappointed.

Seems $S&P 500(.SPX)$  see huge pressure from boss the 30-DMA & Gap.

Day Chart

Same, the weekly chart shows the Gap's pressure more obviousely. 

Weekly Chart

After a week of rebounding last week, U.S. stocks failed to continue, and the willingness to buy more was not obvious.

On Tuesday, the index pulled back from 30-DMA area. At present, there seem pressure to fill One gap, and still another day gap to be filled.  

Earlier, I mentioned in my analysis that every weekly or 100-point gap-filling process takes several months of effort, especially under the pressure of the current overall economic environment.

Seems the current situation doesn't look positive, and market still needs care about the Q1 GDP and May core PCE index to decide a short-term derection.

Regarding recent or a longer trend's analysis ,i recommend this one: Rebalancing, 850-DMA, $30 Bln Pension Funds, Define a Rise in July?

Some other macro factors may worth reading are as below:

Cited from Ned Davis Research's Global Recession Probability, the current Recession risk is elevated.

NDR's Global Recession Probability Model has never moved above 90% without a global slowdown either being in place or happening soon. Current reading = 89.33%. Composite based on data from 35 countries and uses a wide array of economic indicators.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Forward P/E now at 16.3X, while 2015, 2018 and 2020 bear-markets ended around 14X, do you believe the low in $S&P 500(.SPX)$ highly likely ahead? 

If so, the bear market tends to happen as blow?

Will there be miracles?

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Comments

  • HarryCox
    2022-06-29
    HarryCox
    Because it is already in a bear market. The indices will continue to fall
  • BruceBryant
    2022-06-29
    BruceBryant
    I dont think SPX will reach 4100. Short it!
  • Sporeshare
    2022-06-29
    Sporeshare
    still very weak .. it may break Down again
  • Calvin20
    2022-06-30
    Calvin20
    Thanks for sharing
  • chrng
    2022-06-30
    chrng
    [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
  • 華笑今生
    2022-06-29
    華笑今生
    Thanks for sharing
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