KEY POINTS
- Apple has generated a monster return of 560% over the past decade.
- Like Apple, Block and Axon blend hardware with software and services.
These businesses take a page out of Apple's playbook.
Apple has the kind of brand authority most companies will never achieve, and it has used that competitive advantage to build a verysticky business. Specifically, by pairing first-party hardware with software and services, Apple benefits from recurring revenue and high switching costs. That has made it a cash-flow machine, and shareholders have seen a 560% return over the past decade as a result. $Apple(AAPL)$
Block and Axon Enterprise aren't quite the same as Apple, but both have earned brand recognition in their industries while blending hardware, software, and services to create a sticky business model. With that in mind, I think Block and Axon could also soar 600% (or more) over the next decade. $Block(SQ)$ $Axon Enterprise, Inc.(AXON)$
Here's what you should know.
1. Block
Block makes financial services easy and accessible. Its Square ecosystem is a robust suite of hardware, software, and financial services that helps sellers run an omnichannel business. That includes everything from point-of-sale systems and card readers to payment processing and banking services.
On the other side of the business, the Cash App allows consumers to deposit, spend, and invest money from a single platform, and Block's lack of physical infrastructure means it can acquire customers much more efficiently than traditional banks.
More broadly, the breadth of the Square and Cash App ecosystems differentiates Block from many of its rivals, and that has led to impressive growth.Gross profitsoared 50% to $4.8 billion in the past year, driven by increased engagement across both ecosystems. In particular, more mid-market sellers (i.e. those making over $500,000 per year) are turning to Square, and those merchants tend to use more software, which means the relationship is stickier and more profitable for Block. On the bottom line, the company generated $965 million of trailing-12-month free cash flow, up from a loss of $344 million in the prior-year period.Block is integrating its buy now, pay later (BNPL) platform, Afterpay, into Square and Cash App too. Sellers should benefit from increased transaction volumes as BNPL tends to increase conversion rates and cart sizes. And sellers can leverage consumer shopping data to deliver targeted product recommendations through the Cash App. That could unlock natural synergy between the ecosystems.
Collectively, Block values its U.S. addressable market at $190 billion in gross profit, comprising $70 billion from the Cash App and $120 billion from Square. That means Block has captured less than 3% of its domestic market opportunity, and the company has a growing presence in Europe, giving this stock plenty of runway to outpace Apple's performance over the last 10 years.
2. Axon Enterprise
Axon specializes in public safety technology. The company is best known for conducted energy devices (CEDs), which are sold under the brand name Taser. In fact, it was formerly known as Taser International but rebranded to Axon in 2017 to reflect its growing software and sensors business. In that segment, Axon offers body cameras (and other sensors) that stream geo-location and video data to Axon Cloud, a suite of software for digital evidence management, reporting, and real-time operations.
Collectively, those products help public-safety officials (think police officers, first responders, and federal agents) work more efficiently and productively, while also bringing transparency to law enforcement. Building on its early success with Tasers, Axon has established itself as a leader in body cameras and digital evidence-management software, too. That has led to steady and consistent growth.
Revenue rose 27% to $925 million over the past year, and the company generated $51 million in free cash flow, up from $5 million in the prior year. But Axon has hardly scratched the surface of its addressable market, especially where software and sensors are concerned.In the last quarter, management said 25 agencies are now live on Axon Records, software that accelerates incident reporting by replacing written words with video evidence, and by automating tasks like transcription withartificial intelligence. For context, Axon has a customer relationship with 17,000 out of the 18,000 U.S. law enforcement agencies, meaning there is a tremendous opportunity to upsell existing clients.
In total, Axon estimates its market opportunity is worth $52 billion, approximately 80% of which comes from Tasers (for civilians and law enforcement officers), body cameras, and digital evidence-management software. As the leader in all three categories, Axon is well positioned to create wealth for shareholders, and that's why thisgrowth stockis worth buying now.
Comments