The bond market never lies. For the last 37 years, it has respected this "channel of truth", even in times of great crisis, including the GFC in 2008. This time round, it has not only sliced above the channel, it has broken through the 2018 resistance (red line) momentarily before dropping back, and is now on the way to test it again. The zoomed in chart provides a greater understanding of what bond traders really think. The panic and selloff for the S&P500 took place in Jan 2022, just as it sliced out of the channel.
The next SPX drop is probably not very far away.
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