mamaroar
2022-07-06
good//@LimLS:

Nasdaq benefits from the fall of yields. The fall of yield will give a slight boost to the tech and growth companies. That's why we see almost no change in SP500 and even a drop in Dow Jones. But did anyone give a thought on why the yield drops? Last few months, yield are climbing rapidly because everyone is expecting Fed to continue be aggressive (due to high inflation) and maintain a high level of hikes as long as 2023,2024. Now everyone is betting Fed will start to relax it's policy and even reduce the rates by early/mid 2023. Because they all are seeing the chance of recession is high and Fed will have to ease on its policy to prevent a complete meltdown. So if the chance if recession is high, then we should see the market go down further to a new bottom. Any upwards movement now is purely a short lived rally. Bear market don't go down in a straight line. Multiple rallies is common. We can always refer to the previous bear market for reference. Just my view on the market and how I planned my move for the mid/long term horizon. Keep track of a few important metric to ensure our views are still valid. Nowadays, changes come fast and furious. We may be right for next 3-6 months but an unexpected event might just turn the whole situation around. 

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