Tonight, after the US stock market closed and returned, the three major indexes fell directly.
In the entire financial market, except for the US dollar index hitting a 20-year high of 106.62, the euro/US dollar exchange rate broke a new low of 1.02516, and the pound/US dollar exchange rate hit a new low of 1.19303;
The performance of commodity market is even more tragic. WTI crude oil once fell by nearly 7%, Brent crude oil fell by more than 6%, and gold price also broke through the support of 1780, brushing out a low of 1765.90 USD/oz.
All this actually illustrates one thing,
American recession is coming
For example, the economic data released last week showed that the inflation-adjusted monthly rate of actual personal expenditure and annual fee recorded a negative number for the first time, and the values in the first four months of this year were revised down.It indicates that the demand earlier this year was weaker than expected.
For example,Consumer confidence continues to decline.The University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell to an all-time low of 50 in June. Separately, nearly 30 percent of consultancy respondents expect business conditions to deteriorate over the next six months, the largest percentage since the height of the financial crisis in March 2009.
On June 29th, the data of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the US Department of Commerce showed that the annualized quarter-on-quarter final value of the real GDP of the United States in the first quarter was-1. 6%, which was 0.1 percentage points lower than the second forecast released in May. In the fourth quarter of 2021, it increased by 6.9%.
What is even more frightening is that on June 30th, the latest estimate of real GDP growth (quarterly adjusted annual growth rate) in the second quarter of 2022 by GDPNow model was-1. 0%, which was lower than 0.3% on June 27th.
I believes that the market is trading in recession now, just like the Fed didn't believe that inflation was short-lived, and the current market decline is only trading (expecting) a moderate recession.
If the GDP data of the United States is negative in the second quarter, it will confirm this. Once the economy falls into a more terrible deep recession in the future (the probability is small at present), then the financial market will show a more ferocious side in the future. I hope all investors can prepare in advance.
Of course, if the US stocks can't be recovered in the middle of the night, you don't have to worry about chinese stocks market, as the saying goes, you can only see the rainbow after experiencing the wind and rain.
A basic fact that the differentiation of Chinese and American stock markets in the past two months tells us is:US stocks are responsible for experiencing storms, while chinese stocks are responsible for seeing rainbows.
$NQmain(NQmain)$ $CNmain(CNmain)$ $YMmain(YMmain)$ $GCmain(GCmain)$ $CLmain(CLmain)$
Comments