Looming recession with high in

2022-07-06

Looming recession with high inflation. Let's prepare for the worst and hope for the best....

US Recession Chances Surge to 38%, Bloomberg Economics Model Says

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Comments

Shungou
2022-07-06
Shungou
Becoming inevitable
fabio
2022-07-06
fabio
Yet coe still above 100k. Wah lao
Eded
2022-07-06
Eded
Save money and less trading
FlorCheah
2022-07-06
FlorCheah
yea

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Let's prepare for the worst and hope for the best....","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070832821","repostId":1170895202,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170895202","pubTimestamp":1657034675,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170895202?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-05 23:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US Recession Chances Surge to 38%, Bloomberg Economics Model Says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170895202","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The odds of a US recession in the next year are now roughly one-in-three after consumer sentiment hi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The odds of a US recession in the next year are now roughly one-in-three after consumer sentiment hit a record low and interest rates surged, according to the latest forecasts from Bloomberg Economics.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dba6f92918aa47680d8463b6a5b5f285\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The probability model, which incorporates a variety of factors ranging from housing permits and consumer survey data to the gap between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields, is now flashing a 38% probability of a recession over the next 12 months. That’s up from around 0% just a few months before.</p><p>“The risk of a self-fulfilling recession—and one that can happen as soon as early next year—is higher than before,” said Anna Wong, chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics. “Even though household and business balance sheets are strong, worries about the future could cause consumers to pull back, which in turn would lead businesses to hire and invest less.”</p><p>“The risk of a recession in early 2023 has risen substantially,” Wong said.</p><p>The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in June by 75 basis points, the most since 1994, and signaled further increases—potentially of a similar size—in the months ahead. That came on the heels of a 50 basis-point hike in the prior month and cemented a decisively aggressive pivot by the central bank.</p><p>The rapid run-up in borrowing costs, paired with tightening financial conditions and decades-high inflation, has heightened concerns that the Fed—in its attempt to cool the economy and therefore inflation—will ultimately tip the US economy into recession.</p><p><b>Recession Odds Rise</b></p><p>Probability of a US recession within 12 months</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddc6a7bef2b883774c8ff201099e3c9d\" tg-width=\"743\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The rise in recession odds in the latest month can largely be traced to two factors: a moderation in the corporate profit outlook and a significant deterioration in consumer sentiment.</p><p><b>Changing Picture</b></p><p>Selected key indicators from recession probability model</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f579e4b1edabeed518b309e502161669\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Note: ‘Expected change in business conditions’ is an index based to 100. ‘Conference board expectations’ shows the spread between the Present Situation Index and Expectations Index, both where 1985=100.</span></p><p>Financial conditions have tightened considerably in recent months, and corporate profit margins, while still robust, are set to soften somewhat in the second quarter of the year, according to Bloomberg Economics. In the wake of steep rate hikes by the Fed, businesses are contending with rising cost of capital.</p><p>Secondly, Americans’ views of future business conditions sharply deteriorated in June. Each month the University of Michigan releases a closely watched survey of consumer sentiment. The June report not only showed a collapse in consumer sentiment to a record low but also a big decline in a gauge of the expected change in business conditions in a year. At 76, that figure is now at one of its lowest readings in records back to 1978.</p><p>Decades-high inflation has particularly weighed on consumer confidence. Americans are facing near-record prices at the pump and ballooning bills at the grocery store. Adjusted for inflation, average hourly earnings have fallen for eight straight months, eroding Americans’ purchasing power and souring their views on the economy. The savings rate is near its lowest level since 2009, and more than half of Americans believe the US is already in recession.</p><p>A recession is certainly not inevitable, but the path to a so-called soft landing—a cooling in economic activity that doesn’t lead to a recession—is becoming increasingly narrow. That may require price growth to slow sharply and would likely be accompanied by a slight rise in unemployment. The Fed is hopeful of such a result, but Chair Jerome Powell has acknowledged achieving it will be “very challenging.”</p><p>Should a downturn begin in the next year or two, the pandemic recovery—which began in May 2020, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research—would be the shortest US expansion since the one in 1981-1982, which lasted just 12 months.</p><p>Bloomberg Economics’ year-ahead recession probability model will be updated monthly.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Recession Chances Surge to 38%, Bloomberg Economics Model Says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Recession Chances Surge to 38%, Bloomberg Economics Model Says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-05 23:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/us-economic-recession-tracker/?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The odds of a US recession in the next year are now roughly one-in-three after consumer sentiment hit a record low and interest rates surged, according to the latest forecasts from Bloomberg Economics...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/us-economic-recession-tracker/?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/us-economic-recession-tracker/?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170895202","content_text":"The odds of a US recession in the next year are now roughly one-in-three after consumer sentiment hit a record low and interest rates surged, according to the latest forecasts from Bloomberg Economics.The probability model, which incorporates a variety of factors ranging from housing permits and consumer survey data to the gap between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields, is now flashing a 38% probability of a recession over the next 12 months. That’s up from around 0% just a few months before.“The risk of a self-fulfilling recession—and one that can happen as soon as early next year—is higher than before,” said Anna Wong, chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics. “Even though household and business balance sheets are strong, worries about the future could cause consumers to pull back, which in turn would lead businesses to hire and invest less.”“The risk of a recession in early 2023 has risen substantially,” Wong said.The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in June by 75 basis points, the most since 1994, and signaled further increases—potentially of a similar size—in the months ahead. That came on the heels of a 50 basis-point hike in the prior month and cemented a decisively aggressive pivot by the central bank.The rapid run-up in borrowing costs, paired with tightening financial conditions and decades-high inflation, has heightened concerns that the Fed—in its attempt to cool the economy and therefore inflation—will ultimately tip the US economy into recession.Recession Odds RiseProbability of a US recession within 12 monthsThe rise in recession odds in the latest month can largely be traced to two factors: a moderation in the corporate profit outlook and a significant deterioration in consumer sentiment.Changing PictureSelected key indicators from recession probability modelNote: ‘Expected change in business conditions’ is an index based to 100. ‘Conference board expectations’ shows the spread between the Present Situation Index and Expectations Index, both where 1985=100.Financial conditions have tightened considerably in recent months, and corporate profit margins, while still robust, are set to soften somewhat in the second quarter of the year, according to Bloomberg Economics. In the wake of steep rate hikes by the Fed, businesses are contending with rising cost of capital.Secondly, Americans’ views of future business conditions sharply deteriorated in June. Each month the University of Michigan releases a closely watched survey of consumer sentiment. The June report not only showed a collapse in consumer sentiment to a record low but also a big decline in a gauge of the expected change in business conditions in a year. At 76, that figure is now at one of its lowest readings in records back to 1978.Decades-high inflation has particularly weighed on consumer confidence. Americans are facing near-record prices at the pump and ballooning bills at the grocery store. Adjusted for inflation, average hourly earnings have fallen for eight straight months, eroding Americans’ purchasing power and souring their views on the economy. The savings rate is near its lowest level since 2009, and more than half of Americans believe the US is already in recession.A recession is certainly not inevitable, but the path to a so-called soft landing—a cooling in economic activity that doesn’t lead to a recession—is becoming increasingly narrow. That may require price growth to slow sharply and would likely be accompanied by a slight rise in unemployment. The Fed is hopeful of such a result, but Chair Jerome Powell has acknowledged achieving it will be “very challenging.”Should a downturn begin in the next year or two, the pandemic recovery—which began in May 2020, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research—would be the shortest US expansion since the one in 1981-1982, which lasted just 12 months.Bloomberg Economics’ year-ahead recession probability model will be updated monthly.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":184,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":78,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":102711515,"commentId":"102711515","gmtCreate":1657059576560,"gmtModify":1663253491046,"authorId":3585374186568444,"author":{"id":3585374186568444,"idStr":"3585374186568444","authorId":3585374186568444,"name":"Shungou","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e6be94f96866fa41be592e567fcacd","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"80.30%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1eed764d9c7ff83dc093fbb9a96bc2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9070832821,"objectIdStr":"9070832821","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"Becoming inevitable","text":"Becoming inevitable","html":"Becoming inevitable","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":102710625,"commentId":"102710625","gmtCreate":1657046472016,"gmtModify":1663253485745,"authorId":3555261138218608,"author":{"id":3555261138218608,"idStr":"3555261138218608","authorId":3555261138218608,"name":"fabio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8da22244b65eeb511fac3b0633934760","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9070832821,"objectIdStr":"9070832821","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"Yet coe still above 100k. Wah <u>lao</u>","text":"Yet coe still above 100k. Wah <u>lao</u>","html":"Yet coe still above 100k. Wah <u>lao</u>","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":102710464,"commentId":"102710464","gmtCreate":1657042544492,"gmtModify":1663253484049,"authorId":3581980965309451,"author":{"id":3581980965309451,"idStr":"3581980965309451","authorId":3581980965309451,"name":"Eded","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a629a3014601072ee8dc2d151d1796","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9070832821,"objectIdStr":"9070832821","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"Save money and less trading ","text":"Save money and less trading ","html":"Save money and less trading ","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":102710210,"commentId":"102710210","gmtCreate":1657039505999,"gmtModify":1663253482963,"authorId":3573025586175142,"author":{"id":3573025586175142,"idStr":"3573025586175142","authorId":3573025586175142,"name":"FlorCheah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cb91e5f44e414335718e1beffda39e8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9070832821,"objectIdStr":"9070832821","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"<u>yea</u>","text":"<u>yea</u>","html":"<u>yea</u>","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/9070832821"}