zlance
2022-07-14

the report of highest US inflation rate in 41 years is worrying & that piece of news adds more fear to the financial markets because it signifies higher or more rate hikes going forward. Now the current perception is that fed is raising rates to slow growth & consequently, will dampen inflation. What if fed is wrong? What if inflation & slow growth are able to coexist, I.e. stagflation, as how the so-called smart economists frequently term it.

It is likely naive to think that raising interest rate can solve current inflation issue that is supply-constraint driven. Interest cannot solve freight cost that is sky rocketing & neither can it solve the hoarding mentality of certain companies knowing that it will further drive up the price of goods & raw materials. 

While I'm not an expert in solving inflation but I would bet on technological advancement to save us all. Why? It creates alternatives to inelastic demands (if the economists or analysts are still reading this, you must be hyperventilating right now). 

Let me illustrate how. When oil price becomes too expensive, families switch to electric cars. When taxi was a necessity and cars were unaffordable, uber, grab, gojek, didi came along to create a new demand. When a product becomes too expensive because of human labor, machines took over (this is not terminator judgement day). Zoom and other video call apps came in to plug the gap of costly physical meetings and shared workplace firms swooped in to fix high rentals of central biz districts.

Thus, I believe there is value in tech companies (some ppl will be screaming: these are growth companies for christ sake). Moreover, the cash flows of these companies are less likely to be affected by higher interest since these companies are mostly funded by equity, not debt.

$Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$  is the way to go assuming the traders just don't sell everything under the sun when fed parades out another higher or few more rate hikes to (try to) solve inflation.

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Comments

  • Brrrrrrrrrrr
    2022-07-14
    Brrrrrrrrrrr
    US self inflicted inflation and created that whole bubble themselves. huge expenditure on weapons and help to Ukraine as their own citizens suffer.
  • HilaryWilde
    2022-07-17
    HilaryWilde
    Thanks for sharing. What you said makes sense.
  • HilaryWilde
    2022-07-17
    HilaryWilde
    What good words, I learned a lot.
  • Pepermintpat
    2022-07-15
    Pepermintpat
    Tqqq way to go! 👍
  • Asphen
    2022-07-14
    Asphen
    will bring about the final bottom
  • Joyjoy_Cheng
    2022-07-18
    Joyjoy_Cheng
    👍
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