Netflix CRASH, Should I buy the DIP?

Innovator
2022-04-20

$Netflix(NFLX)$

Netflix earning highlight was always the growing numbers of subscribers. BUT as of yesterday, no more! For the first time in a DECADE Netflix is repprting losing of subscribers. 

With the news, Netflix crash more than 25% pre market. 

Netflix loses 200k subscribers in Q1 and it blames 

1) suspending of Russian service about 700k member 

2) strong competition especially in the US From Disney,prime etc. 


For #1 if we exclude that we still have net gain of subscribers but is still small compare to previous millions in growth. 

If we dive deep, #2 is the problem. With the competition, Netflix no longer have a good moat, or should say Netflix don't have a moat! 


In the past Netflex have great competitor advantage:

1) first mover advantage

2) unique content

3) no ad 

But with increasing competitor in term of price, content, Netflix is starting to feel the pain. 

What worse, Netflix predict it will further losing more subscribers in the next quarter to as much as 2 million. 


So should you buy the DIP? For me I will wait and see approach, with the current inflation environment which is bad for growth stock and Netflix not growing as quickly, we want to aoivd catching a falling knife. 

But if Netflix can expand their revenue stream and built on top of their business in gaming, merchandise etc. 

A naturally next step that Netflix is already working on and if they can spun that off successfully then maybe Netflix grow story will continue.. 










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Comments

  • DragonTycoon
    2022-04-20
    DragonTycoon
    my rule of thumb is to buy when share price drops 30% from all time high
    then buy again if it drops to 50% from all time high
    then again at 70% from all time high
    • bernardtayetReplyInnovator
      I can agree. Thanks.
    • Innovator
      Have this Strategy before but only works if is a solid fundamental stock..for speculative stock once down may not go back up.. Or even go bankrupt
  • MatthewWalter
    2022-04-20
    MatthewWalter
    I would not play with Netflix right now. Bulls and bears are both in for some hard trading. Why trade Netflix when there are thousands of other better money makers?
    • Innovator
      But sometimes volatility and present good trading opportunities..
  • EmilyMark
    2022-04-20
    EmilyMark
    I told you last earnings call this would happen . I dropped them after last increase. Looks like everyone was doing the same.
  • ChristKitto
    2022-04-20
    ChristKitto
    if they would have announced squid games season 2 it would have been reversed action 🤣🤣🤣
  • MrHuattt
    2022-04-20
    MrHuattt
    Lost only 200k subscribers when they have hundreds millions of subscribers worldwide.... Dropped 40% in stock market doesn't make sense la... BUY NOW
  • WilliamQuan
    2022-04-20
    WilliamQuan
    It depends significantly on Squid game season 2 aka the moat
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